The Bilateral Relations between Ethiopia and Somalia since 2018: Challenges and Prospects
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Date
2026-02-01
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Addis Ababa University
Abstract
Background and Context: Ethiopia and Somalia share significant commonalities, including contiguous territory, overlapping communities of shared culture, language, and religion. Yet these two states have also exhibited profound divergences rooted in ideological orientation, opposing great-power alliances during the Cold War, and disputes over territorial jurisdiction, resulting in bloody inter-state conflicts, most notably the Ogaden War of 1977–1978. Since the last decade, developments unfolding within and outside these states – including regime changes, regional geopolitical competitions, and the growing securitisation of the Red Sea corridor – have fundamentally re-shaped the nature of their bilateral relations.
Research Problem and Objectives: Against this backdrop, the present research aims to disentangle the history, dynamics, and evolution of Ethio-Somali diplomatic relations by focusing on the period from 2018 onwards. The study examines how historical context, domestic political reforms, regional geopolitical rivalry, and the roles of external actors intersect to shape the bilateral relationship, and what this means for the security of the Horn of Africa region.
Methodology: A qualitative research design employing a case study approach was used. Data were collected through semi-structured Key Informant Interviews (KIIs) with experts and practitioners in diplomacy, security, economics, and regional politics. Primary interview data were triangulated with secondary sources including peer-reviewed academic literature, policy reports, official documents, and media sources. Thematic, comparative, and process-tracing analyses were applied.
Key Findings: The findings highlight constrained diplomatic relations shaped by unhealed historical wounds, including the Ogaden War and Ethiopia‟s 2006 military intervention. In the post-2018 era, several factors have exerted determining effects: internal political transitions, Ethiopia‟s sea access pursuit, the 2024 Ethiopia–Somaliland MoU, and the growing influence of external actors including Turkey, the UAE, and Egypt. The study finds that the bilateral relationship simultaneously exhibits areas of cooperation – in counterterrorism, trade, and
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infrastructure – and serious structural bottlenecks rooted in historical grievances, contested sovereignty, and divergent national interests.
Conclusions and Implications: The study concludes that structural mistrust, unilateral diplomatic manoeuvres, and external actor involvement have repeatedly disrupted cooperation. Establishing a permanent bilateral commission, reforming regional governance, and pursuing multilateral approaches to sea access are among the key recommendations.
Keywords: Ethiopia–Somalia Relations; Horn of Africa; Diplomacy; Regional Security; Red Sea Geopolitics; Somaliland; IGAD; AU; Al-Shabaab; Sovereignty; State Fragility.
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Keywords
Ethiopia–Somalia Relations, Horn of Africa, Diplomacy, Regional Security, Red Sea Geopolitics, Somaliland, IGAD, AU, Al-Shabaab, Sovereignty, State Fragility