Conflict Early Warning and Early Response Mechanisms in Post-1991 Ethiopia: The Case of Oromia and Somali Regional States’ Border Conflict
No Thumbnail Available
Date
2018-05
Authors
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Publisher
Addis Ababa Unversity
Abstract
In the last four decades, the international peace agenda has been dominated by debates on
conflict prevention. In Africa, the post-Cold War era has witnessed a shift in emphasis from
conflict management to conflict prevention. While conflict management focuses on armed aspects
of conflict, conflict prevention tries to contain and resolve imminent conflicts by responding to
visible signs and indicators. Essentially, the shift is necessitated by the shortcomings of the
reactionary rather than proactive nature of conflict management approaches. Irrespective of the
paradigm shift towards conflict prevention, Africa in general and the countries of the Horn in
particular continue to witness persistent violent conflicts. Conflict early warning and response
system as a tool for conflict prevention has assumed more prominence in international conflict
prevention platforms such as the United Nations (UN), African Union (AU), and Regional
Economic Communities (REC), research institutions and National Governments, including
Ethiopia. The adoption of early warning practice in conflict prevention has had its successes and
failures. Cases of success are evident in Sierra Leone, while the failure of the International
community to contain the genocide in Rwanda has been cited for its failure. This study therefore,
primarily examines how the national conflict early warning and response system instituted by
MOFPDA has worked or failed to prevent conflicts before it escalates to violent level in Ethiopia
taking the Oromia and Somali National Regional States‟ border conflict as a case study. This
study argues that the absence of viable and strong institution of early warning systems and
response leads to conflict escalation. The study adopts conflict prevention theory propounded by
Michael S. Lund (2009) as theoretical framework of analysis. Lund contends that the success of
conflict prevention is contingent on the following three assumptions: early response to
manifestations of indicators; an all-inclusive, coordinated process of key stages of conflict early
warning to mitigate tension or threats to violence; and concerted attempts to transform the root
causes of violence. Methodologically, the study employed qualitative research approach and data
gathering was made by using interviews, focus group discussions, field observation and analysis
of available documents. Empirical data were sourced from cases of the Oromo-Somali border
conflicts, using two conflicthotspot districts – Mi‟esso and Moyale. This border area
hasexperienced persistent and complex armed conflict. The findings of this study indicate that the
federal process has no strong conflict prevention, early warning and response institution. Lack of
viable and strong institution for conflict early warning and early response systems – both at
National (MOFPDA) and Oromia and Somali Regional States level to prevent the escalation of
conflicts at its earlier stage have caused local and regional disputes to grow into violent
conflicts. The study further points out that, institutionalizing and strengthening early warning
systems will lead to a significant reduction of conflicts along the inter-regional borders. Also, the
nature of cooperation and synergy between federal and regional conflict early warning and
response mechanisms in the prevention and mitigation of Oromia- Somali border conflict is
weak. The centralized policy and decision-making process of the ruling party and lack of
impartial institutions for intergovernmental relationship has hindered strong synergy and
cooperation between federal and regional governments.
Description
Keywords
border conflict, resource conflict, conflict prevention, conflict early warning, conflict early response, Oromia and Somali National Regional States