Implications of the War Between Federal Government and Tplf on Ethio-U.S. Relations Since 2020

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Date

2023-05-01

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Addis Ababa University

Abstract

The war between the Ethiopian federal government and TPLF which was conducted from November 2020 to October 2022 attracted the attention of external forces, international media, multilateral institutions, and researchers. This study examines the implications of the war on EthioU.S. relations from 2020 to the present. Qualitative research approach was employed for the study. Data were collected through in-depth interviews with key informants from Ethiopian government, U.S. institutions, senior diplomats, and researchers, among others. The study identified major factors that led to a deterioration of the Ethio-U.S bilateral relationship including alleged human rights violations by the U.S, Ethiopia's change in foreign policy orientation contrary to U.S. expectations in the post 2018, geopolitical competition, and relations between the U.S. and former TPLF officials which necessitated U.S. protection of the TPLF during the war. Diplomatic pressure and U.S.-imposed sanctions against Ethiopia have had two important implications on bilateral relations. First, it put strong international pressure on Ethiopia, and Secondly, this has caused Ethiopia to promptly align itself with the powers that rival the United States, China, and Russia. The findings also indicate that bilateral economic cooperation was severed during the war. The bilateral export trade showed decline in the part of the U.S in 2021, while Ethiopia earned better from export though non AGOA tariff-based export lines during the same year. The termination of AGOA denied Ethiopia substantial export earnings; while encouraging the country to seek for additional markets, notably from China, which helped it to withstand the U.S economic sanctions to some extent. Similarly, a shift in Ethiopia’s geopolitical security cooperation has been observed as Ethio-U.S. strategic security cooperation declined over the war. The study suggests that the two countries have solid mutual interests that they cannot ignore, while they need to take clear positions on critical issues such as prioritizing human rights issues over other strategic bilateral and regional issues, how they engage in the increasing geopolitical competition in the Horn of Africa, and on GERD politics.

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Keywords

Bilateral relations, human rights, sanctions, geopolitical competition, shifting alliance, war.

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