Levels and Determinants of Fertility in Addis Ababa

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Addis Ababa University


Addis Ababa, the capital city and the most urbanized center in Ethiopia, has experienced a TFR level of 1.8 births per woman in the year 1994 that never expelienced by any other city of developing country. As such an attempt is made by CSA to investigate the real level of fertility and it is reported that the plausible estimate of TFR for Addis Ababa for 1994 was 2.14 births per woman. The present thesis is therefore designed to (i) re-estimate the levels of fertility for Addis Ababa for the recent past using appropriate indirect techniques and to reconfirm the fertility decline reported by CSA; and (ii) determine the important demographic, socio-economic and proximate determinants of feltility for a change in feltility of Addis Ababa during the 1990 and 1995. The study uses the data on fertility of 1990 NFFS and 1995 FSOUAA, conducted by CSA. The study concludes that the estimate made by CSA of 2.14 births per woman is quite acceptable. The present study provided a plausible estimate of 2.2 births per woman as an alternative estimate of TFR for the period of 1989-94. This estimate is arrived at using Rele's (1987) refined methodology. The study also provided a time series of TFRs, model ASFRs, starting from 1974-79 to 1998. The study is said to be unique in the sense that for the first time an attempt is made in this thesis to provide Bongaarts indices, indirectly, for the time periods of 1974-79, 1979-84, 1984-89, 1989-94 and also for 1998, for Addis Ababa, from the simple information on TFRs. Further using the index values it is successfully shown that fertility has declined oveltime to a great extent mainly due to the affect of marriage followed by a less extent of contraceptive useThe study finally concludes that although marriage pattern is playing a great role in the decline of fertility of the recent past, the role played by contraceptive use cannot be neglected. However, as its impact is observed to be low when compared to the impact of marriage, it is recommended to improve the effect of contracepti ves by means of advi sing women in reproductive ages to use contraceptives to limit births, instead of postponing further. The study also recommends making use of services of the voluntary organizations for demographic causes, such as reducing mortality.