Levels and Determinants of Fertility in Addis Ababa
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Date
2000-06
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Addis Ababa University
Abstract
Addis Ababa, the capital city and the most urbanized center in Ethiopia, has
experienced a TFR level of 1.8 births per woman in the year 1994 that never expelienced by
any other city of developing country. As such an attempt is made by CSA to investigate the
real level of fertility and it is reported that the plausible estimate of TFR for Addis Ababa for
1994 was 2.14 births per woman. The present thesis is therefore designed to (i) re-estimate the
levels of fertility for Addis Ababa for the recent past using appropriate indirect techniques and
to reconfirm the fertility decline reported by CSA; and (ii) determine the important
demographic, socio-economic and proximate determinants of feltility for a change in feltility
of Addis Ababa during the 1990 and 1995.
The study uses the data on fertility of 1990 NFFS and 1995 FSOUAA, conducted by
CSA. The study concludes that the estimate made by CSA of 2.14 births per woman is quite
acceptable. The present study provided a plausible estimate of 2.2 births per woman as an
alternative estimate of TFR for the period of 1989-94. This estimate is arrived at using Rele's
(1987) refined methodology. The study also provided a time series of TFRs, model ASFRs,
starting from 1974-79 to 1998.
The study is said to be unique in the sense that for the first time an attempt is made in
this thesis to provide Bongaarts indices, indirectly, for the time periods of 1974-79, 1979-84,
1984-89, 1989-94 and also for 1998, for Addis Ababa, from the simple information on TFRs.
Further using the index values it is successfully shown that fertility has declined oveltime to a
great extent mainly due to the affect of marriage followed by a less extent of contraceptive
useThe study finally concludes that although marriage pattern is playing a great role in
the decline of fertility of the recent past, the role played by contraceptive use cannot be
neglected. However, as its impact is observed to be low when compared to the impact of
marriage, it is recommended to improve the effect of contracepti ves by means of advi sing
women in reproductive ages to use contraceptives to limit births, instead of postponing
further. The study also recommends making use of services of the voluntary organizations for
demographic causes, such as reducing mortality.
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Determinants