Development of Modal Choice Model For HomeBased Work Trips-The Case of Jemo Area Residents In Addis Ababa A Thesis in Road and Transport Engineering

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Addis Ababa is one of the cities that are plagued by a continuous increase in traffic congestion which resulted in longer travel times, increased accidents, more fuel consumption, and deterioration in air quality. Providing and improving urban public transport service is highly important in mitigating these challenges as well as creating sustainable transport systems. The corridor from Jemo to Mexico is one of the most congested corridors in the city and the trips in the morning peak hour are mostly home-based work trips. The study of modal choice behavior of residents traveling to work will guide policy makers to improve the service quality of public transportation systems in a way the majority of the commuters will use them. Discrete choice models can be used to analyze and predict a decision maker’s choice of one alternative from a set of alternatives. This study aims to contribute for the improvement of the service quality of public transport systems in the city by determining the basic factors that affect the preference of modes and how each factor affect the mode choice of trip makers to travel to work place. 475 questionnaires were collected in which 4/5 th of the data were used for calibration and 1/5 th for validation of the revealed and stated preference models. The collected data of variables related to the trip maker and characteristics of the mode are fitted in special type of multinomial logit model known as conditional logit model using SPSS. Revealed preference model was developed for preferences among large bus, minibus (taxi) and private cars. Whereas the stated preference model was developed for preferences among the existing modes (large bus, minibus (taxi) and private car) and the BRT system. The developed models for the revealed preference survey proved that the total travel time and total travel cost of the transport modes are the primary factors that statistically significantly affect in addition to car ownership, time of leaving home and education level interaction variable with taxi. The stated preference models indicated that the preference towards the BRT increases with the decrease in total travel cost, in-vehicle travel time and out of vehicle travel time. The models are validated to be capable of predicting 80% and 92% of the preference of trip makers among the available revealed and stated modes, respectively.



Mode choice modeling, conditional logit model, stated preference, BRT, Addis Ababa