The Determinants of Gross National Saving: The Case of Ethiopia

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Saving is becoming a pervasive agenda as decreed in African Union Regional agenda and it is also part of global agenda as enacted in UN resolutions for the nations to develop sustainable finance for financing sustainable development. The objective of this paper was to investigate the determinants of gross national saving in Ethiopia using annual time series data from 1981-2019. The study used Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) modeling and bounds test for co-integration. Estimated results revealed that percapita income, current account balance and bilateral aid are found to have a statically significant positive effect on the saving rate, or gross national saving as a percentage of GDP in Ethiopia. Urban population growth rate however found to affect national saving negatively in the long run. On the other hand, deposit interest rate and inflation are found to be statistically insignificant effect on national saving rate in the long run. In the short run, current account balance is found to have a negative effect on the rate of gross national saving at 5% level of significance. These findings imply that creating an enabling environment for percapita income growth and expansion, improving current account balance (by stimulating exports and substituting imports),strengthening global-partnership for foreign-bilateral capital generation and other technical co-operation, and regulating population growth by speeding up demographic transition, controlling rapid urban growth through expansion of urban services to rural areas for inclusive growth, reducing poverty and improving the level of employment and reducing non-productive public expenditure and maintain macroeconomic stability in long run help to raise saving in Ethiopia.



gross national savings, time series analysis, ARDL bounds co-integration test, Ethiopia