Browsing by Author "Pollen, Gabriel"

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    Export Supply Modeling: The Case for Zambia
    (A.A.U, 2008-06) Pollen, Gabriel; Geda, Alemayehu (Dr)
    This study has shown the dependence of the Zambian economy on copper exports for a Large proportion of its foreign exchange earnings . Agonist this background, the study has Further attempted to model copper export supply in the framework of a cointegration and Error correction model representation. The copper export supply funclion is estimated using enwal data spamming the period 1970-2004 the general static long-run coinlegrulion equation reveals that price as well as non-price factors are important determinants of copper export supply. However, when lags are incorporated, non-price factors better explain the supply of capper exports. Conversely, with and without lags in the short-run, only non-price factors are seen as important determinants of copper export supply. These results show that emphasis on price factors in effecting exports may not be of essence to the Zambian case. Finally. These findings raise a range of issues that may guide policy assertion such as the overall goal of government and policy makers being one that seeks to diversify exports away from dependence on copper.
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    Export Supply Modeling: The Case for Zambia
    (Addis Ababa University, 2008-06) Pollen, Gabriel; Geda, Alemayehu (PhD)
    This study has shown the dependence of the Zambian economy on copper exports for a large proportion of its foreign exchange earnings. Against this background, the study has further attempted to model copper export supply in the framework of a cointegration and error correction model representation. The copper export supply function is estimated using annual data spanning the period 1970-2004. The general static long-run cointegration equation reveals that price as well as non-price factors are important determinants of copper export supply. However, when lags are incorporated, non-price factors better explain the supply of copper exports. Conversely, with and without lags, in the short-run, only non-price factors are seen as important determinants of copper export supply. These results show that emphasis on price factors in affecting exports may not be of essence to the Zambian case. Finally, these findings raise a range of issues that may guide policy assertion such as the overall goal of government and policy makers being one that seeks to diversify exports away from dependence on copper. Key Words: Copper, Export Supply, Cointegration, Error Correction Model, Price Factors, Non-price factors