Export Supply Modeling: The Case for Zambia
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Date
2008-06
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Publisher
A.A.U
Abstract
This study has shown the dependence of the Zambian economy on copper exports for a
Large proportion of its foreign exchange earnings . Agonist this background, the study has
Further attempted to model copper export supply in the framework of a cointegration and
Error correction model representation. The copper export supply funclion is estimated
using enwal data spamming the period 1970-2004 the general static long-run
coinlegrulion equation reveals that price as well as non-price factors are important
determinants of copper export supply. However, when lags are incorporated, non-price
factors better explain the supply of capper exports. Conversely, with and without lags in
the short-run, only non-price factors are seen as important determinants of copper export
supply. These results show that emphasis on price factors in effecting exports may not be
of essence to the Zambian case. Finally. These findings raise a range of issues that may
guide policy assertion such as the overall goal of government and policy makers being
one that seeks to diversify exports away from dependence on copper.
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Keywords
Copper, Export supply, Conitegration, Error correction, Model, Price, Factors, Non factors