Browsing by Author "Jemal, Mohammed"

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    Long Term Demand-Forecasting and Generation Expansion Planning of The Ethiopian Electric Power (Eep)
    (Addis Ababa University, 2017-04) Jemal, Mohammed; Singh, N.P(Perfessor)
    In the upcoming decade, Ethiopia is expected to experience high economic, Industrial and social growth. As a result, In addition to the growth of the existing electricity demands, the Ethiopian Electric Power (EEP) expects new customer demands from neighboring countries, from Irrigation & Transportation systems and New Industrial and manufacturing customers. Therefore, it is required that these new demands requested be considered during the generation expansion planning of the country. Moreover, it is also required to take into consideration of the uncertainty of the demand driving parameters such as the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and Population growth of the country in order to make an accurate load forecasting. This thesis, in addition to introducing the new demand requests into its forecast, it also applied a stochastic demand forecasting method to consider the uncertainty of the demand driving parameters of the GDP and Population growth of the country. In this stochastic method of demand forecasting two Scenarios, each having different forecasted GDP data are considered. The 1st Scenario considered a moderate GDP forecast, which was forecasted by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) until 2028. The 2nd Scenario considered the country’s 2028 Target GDP data obtained from MOFED (Ministry of Finance and Economic Development). The historical population data of the country (until 2014) was collected from the Central Statistical Agency of Ethiopia and the United Nations. Based on these data the electricity demand forecast and Generation Expansion Planning (GEP) of the year 2028 is done for both the scenarios. Using the Scenario-1 GDP data, a peak demand of 12,450 MW is estimated for the year 2028. While, in the 2nd Scenario a peak demand of 13,319 MW is estimated. Comparing the Generation Expansion Planning results of the 2 Scenarios, for the year 2028, it is recommended to construct the Scenario-2 selected plants of Beko-Abo, Gibe IV, Upper-Mandeya, Karadobi and Tams with a total cost of $3,190 million. KEYWORDS: Demand Forecasting, Stochastic Forecast, Generation Expansion Planning, Optimization, Gross Domestic Product.
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    Urban Agriculture Initiatives In Addis Ababa With Practical Evidences From Selected Vegetable Producing Cooperatives And Households In The City
    (Addis Ababauniversity, 2002-02) Jemal, Mohammed; Demeke, Mulat (PhD)
    Many of the urban development studies on the city of Addis Ababa nearly always concentrate on the non-agricultural activities, as the result of which information and even base-line data on urban agriculture in the city are missing. This exploratory and descriptive study intends not only to contribute something in fillingin this gap of information on urban agriculture by taking one component of urban agriculture, which is vegetable production, but also has the intention of attracting allention to the relatively neglected area of urban agriculture. To this end, the study attempts to characterize the vegetable producing urban farmers in the city; to explore and describe the types, the scales and peljormances of vegetable production activities in the city. It also tries to examine the income, employment, and consumption effects of vegetable production; to idel1li/Y and analyze the major problems and constraints as well as to indicate implication for future government policy planning and management of urban agriculture. Major findings of the study prove that the activity of urban agriculture in Addis Ababa has been significantly contributing to the income generation of the urban poor families thereby contributing towards alleviating the intensity of poverty. Additionally, findings of the research show that, the sector has also been of a paramount importance in providing these families with food security and employment opportunities. However, results of the findings on the other hand indicate that urban agriculture in Addis Ababa is being highly constrained by various factors amongst which lack of government recognition, constraints on access to inputs and services are worth mentioning. Departingji-om all these outcomes of the study therefore it has been highly recommended that the government give sufficient attention to the industl), particularly in the areas of support for research and development, in the areas of provision of extension workers, inputs, and credit facilities for the overall improvement of productivity and the successful development of urban agriculture