Browsing by Author "Bekele, Semen"

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    Determinants of Non - Coffee Export Commodities of Ethiopia (1970/71-2004/05)
    (Addis Ababa University, 2008-09) Bekele, Semen; GlYohannes, Gebre-Emanuel (PhD)
    The purpose 01' this paper is to anal yze the determinant or non-colTec export commodities. subdividing in tll two categories. namely NCOI: I (sum 01' oil secds. chat. hides and skins. pulses) anc! NCOI :2 (sum or meat and meat products. rruit vegetables. sugar. gu ld. oil cakes, live animals. petroleum and petroleum products. bees and wax, other).The study cmploys the standard Augmented Dicky-Fuller and Phillips "herron test to test the stationarity of all variables at levels and lirst di fference and the two stage I:nglc Granger test to check the existence or eointegration re lationship. The model was estimated using error correction procedure. The main lindings or the study sholY that: lirst. real efrecti ve exc hange rate is one or the litctors that determine both thl' long term and short krm m()\ eml'nt "I' real non-cllll,'c I export commodities or I·:thiopia. Secondly. external shock like terms or trade determines the movement or export of noncolTee I. Thirdl". GD!' is one or the important raeturs which determine the mo,'ement IClr the nunclll'iCc2. impl) ing that as the country's out put due to thc inllul'nce or the perlc))']nanec or thc agricultural sector increases. the countr)'s non-cot'iCe2 cxport commodi ties mo vement will increase. Fourthl y. exchange rate gap is one of the common ractors that determ ine movemcnt lor both non-co llee cxport groups.
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    Economy Wide Impact of Investment in Road Infrastructure in Ethiopia: A Recursive Dynamic Computable General Equilibrium Approach
    (Addis Ababa University, 2015-06) Bekele, Semen; Ferede, Tadelle (PhD)
    In current periods Ethiopia has been implementing huge investment in road infrastructure across the country. Despite the significant improvements in road length, accessibility and quality of roads, few researches were conducted on the impacts of investments in road infrastructure on economic growth, household income and consumption growth. These researches were conducted following the partial equilibrium or econometric techniques that lacks to address the interrelated effect in addition to the limitation that some of these studies were done for a specific road sector development programs and or specific areas In this study an attempt has been made to examine economy wide impact of investment in road infrastructure using a recursive dynamic CGE model. The study used an updated version of the 2005/06 EDRI Social Accounting Matrix. Six simulations were considered. While the first three simulations were based on the existing and past Ethiopia policy which considered the average road density growth in the PASDEP period, the average density growth required to reach the middle income level and the average road density growth in the GTP period, the last three simulation were considered as robustness test. Simulations with the CGE model confirm that with increasing availability of road infrastructure, there is a positive growth in the macroeconomic and sectorial indicators (Real GDP, absorption, investment, private consumption, real export, and real import) though the magnitude of the effects is relatively small compared with the high investment costs and the changes varies among the different indicators. Similarly the demand for labor, capital, land and livestock increases with increasing availability of road infrastructure. Income from livestock and land responds better compared to labor and capital as road investment increases. Welfare, measured as real consumption, increases on average and at the disaggregate level for all households. In this case the rural poor benefited more from road investment in terms of earning better income and consumption. Road infrastructure affects the production sectors differently. Manufacturing and capital-intensive activities benefit, while agricultural sectors are less favored, given the relative increase in wages.