How Central Bank Responds to Macroeconomic Shocks? Specification, Estimation and Analysis of Monetary Policy Reaction Function: The Case of Ethiopia (1991-2005)
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Date
2006-07
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A.A.U
Abstract
This paper presents a model of monetary policy in Ethiopia after financial liberalization
policy adopted. It is designed to identify both the goals and patted of policy with the two
major aims: firstly to know the way how National Bank of Ethiopia systematically responds
to macroeconomic shocks and secondly to evaluate the performance monetary policy against
its initial objective including assessment of gap analysis in monetary policy frame work.
Hence, the model demonstrates that the National Bank of Ethiopia chooses the domestic
credit as the most appropriates indicator of monetary policy with the determinants of net
foreign assets, consumer price index, fiscal gap, real effective exchange rate and Gross
Domestic Products to formulate the reaction function. On top of this the empirical results
explain that domestic credit has strong long run & positive relation with net foreign assets &
to real Gross Domestic Product. But it has short run relation with consumer price index, real
effective exchange rate and real Gross Domestic Product at different lag structure. The NBE
followed a combination of both accommodating and stabilization monetary policy. The
Coefficients of equilibrating error terms, ECM suggest that the speed of adjustment! feed back
effect towards the long run equilibrium takes many years for full adjustment when there is a
shock in the system, indicating t he longer lags structure and undeveloped financial sectors
resulted in obstacles for the effectiveness of monetary policy.
Regarding to the evaluation of monetary policy objectives up on short run dynamics model ,
Both low inflation rate and reduction of monetization of fiscal deficit can be maintained in the
review period while achieving the interactional reserve target is not fully under the control of
NBE. Basically, the attempts of NBE to maintain the growth rate of money supply at the rate
of nominal GOP growth has been satisfactorily met in the review period The sterilization
coefficient revealed incomplete sterilization activities while the offset coefficient tell us a
highest degree of monetary control with low degree of capital mobility.
Therefore in general due to the non-existence of a well-developed secondary market, the lack
of latitude to engage in discretionary activities, and partial monetization of the economy make
the monetary policy implementation ineffective.
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Keywords
Central Bank Responds, Macroeconomic Shocks