Travel Demand Modeling of Addis Ababa East – West Light Rail Transport
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Date
2016-02
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Addis Ababa University
Abstract
healthy economy, diversified and well managed transportation system needs in place. As part
of the first GTP, the Federal government has built international and national railway networks.
The city of Addis Ababa has gain an opportunity to have 34km of Light Rail Transport line. In
order to keep any transportation systems fully functional during its service years, appropriate
transport planning and modeling needed. The first step of transport planning and modeling it
is to identify the needs for transportation, usually called travel demand modeling. The main
objective of this research is to determine Addis Ababa East - West Light Rail travel demand
by using the conventional statically oriented and trip based approach of the four step travel
demand modeling technique. This modeling principle needs data of, transportation network,
city level socio-economic indicators, transportation cost, travel time cost, available means of
transport, and other relevant data that dictate mobility and choice of transportation mode. In
order to facilitate modeling procedures TransCAD 4.5 modeling tool was utilized. In the course
of modeling, Addis Ababa Transport Master Plan study serve as a basic platform for modeling
by updating its input variable with 2012 base year data. The 99 Kebels of Addis Ababa used
as TAZ’s, transportation network developed, regression equations of trip production and
attraction with updated variables used. The balanced trip production of the four trip categories,
Home Based Work, Home Based Education, Home Based Others, and Non Home Based trips
distributed over TAZ’s. By deducting percentage of none public transport users, total number
of traffics split over the three modes of public transports; Taxi, Bus and Medium Bus; and
assigned over the network. By considering LRT as the fourth means of transport in the East -
West corridor, traffic modal share recalculated using generalized cost, and percentage share of
the four means of transport identified. As the modeling results showed, 3.5 million people
reside in Addis Ababa, total number of traffic in the study corridor is 644,400, with 25.9
percentage share 167,200 passengers use LRT per day. Of all the segments, Mexico, Coca,
Torhayloch and Stadium area has the highest number LRT user. These and other findings of
this research compared with design document of LRT and it is concluded that the base year of
2012 traffic by itself surpass both initial and short term expected design traffic. Therefore, it is
highly recommended a quick review of LRT traffic forecast is needed in order to alleviate the
current over crowded in East – West LRT line.
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Keywords
Travel demand, Transport modeling, TransCAD, Light Rail, GIS