Impact of Climate Change on Irrigation Case Study on: Wonji Shoa Sugar Plantation Estate
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Date
2020-06
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Addis Ababa University
Abstract
Irrigation is significant in increasing agriculture production and productivity for
sustainability of country's economy. Impacts on existing activities for irrigation design
and management system is obvious due to rapid change of climate system which raised
the concern of floods and droughts. This paper future focus the impacts in irrigation
system on Wonji Shoa Suger Plantation Estate. The assessment is founded on downscaled
outputs of Cordex Africa climate data portal and a sugarcane growth model. A range of
impacts on water resource systems results from change of local hydrologic condition are
because of climate changes. Every aspect of human well-being will be hurt by such
changes. The thesis objective is to evaluate the influence of changing climate on the crop
yield and irrigation requirement for Wonji Shoa Sugarcane Plantation Estate. For future
climate data, it used the results of projections of cordex regional climate model (RCM)
with bias correction for medium concentration representative path way 4.5RCP and high
concentrative representative path way 8.5RCP scenario. The down-scaled data were then
used as input to the AQUACROP model to simulate the corresponding future yield,
irrigation requirement and evapotranspiration. The analysis done for the 2020s (2010–
2039), the 2050s (2040–2069) and the 2080s (2070–2099), and it compared them with
the reference period (1990–2016) using measured and modeled data. The time series
generated by downscaled RCM indicate a significant increasing trend in maximum and
minimum temperature values and a slight increasing trend in precipitation for both
4.5rcp and 8.5rcp scenarios for all three bench mark periods. The yield and irrigation
requirement impact analysis made with the downscaled temperature and precipitation
time series as input to the Aquacrop model suggested for both 4.5rcp and 8.5rcp
scenarios. The model output shows that there is an annual increase in yield. For 8.5 rcp
scenarios, the incensement is 6.2%, 7.84, 11.03% and 14.48% in 2020s, 2040s, 2060s
and 2080s respectively. For 4.5 rcp scenarios the increment is much lower compared to
8.5rcp scenarios. But there is steel increasing in yield for 4.5rcp. The change is 0.3%,
1.8%, 7.02%,and 4.82% for the period of 2020s, 2040s, 2060s, and 2080s respectively.
The evapotranspiration shows an increases in 20.34%, 20.12%, 23.59% and 24.36% for
8.5 rcp in the period of 2020s, 2040s, 2060s, 2080s respectively. For 4.5rcp scenario the change is in about 8.4%, 11.65%, 13.22%, and 15.85% for the period of 2020s, 2040s,
2060s, and 2080s respectively. In irrigation requirement, for 4.5 rcp scenarios there is no
change in four benchmark periods and in decreases after 2060s for 8.5 rcp scenario in .816% and
-9.75%.
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Keywords
Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment, Regional Climate Model, Representative Concentration Path way, AQUACROP, WONJISHOA