The Impacts of Climate Change on Small Holder’s Crop Production in Major Crop Producer Zones in Ethiopia: A Dynamic Panel Data Approach
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Date
2023-06-19
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A.A.U
Abstract
The frequency of climatic risks is increasing as a result of climate change. There is a need to
assess their impacts on each major crop producer zones in Ethiopia. This paper examined the
impacts of climate change on crop production of private peasant holders focusing on cereals,
pulse, oilseed, and vegetables in the cases of major selected crop producer zones in Ethiopia.
One-step system GMM and Two-step system GMM were used to assess the impacts of climate
change on cereal production from the period 2003/04-2021/22 for 21 selected zones from
Amhara region, Oromia region, Binishangul Gumuz, SNNP, and Sidama region. We have
estimated cereal production, pulse production, oilseed production, and vegetable production.
The researcher concluded that lagged total production of cereals, number of private peasant
holders, area in hectares, fertilizer, precipitation, Maximum average temperature; relative
humidity, and regional dummy variables are the most significant factors that affect the
production of cereals in major cereal producer zone in Ethiopia in the case of private peasant
holders. Precipitation has adverse effects on cereals, pulse, and oilseed production. At first
glance, the study suggested that the private peasant should not only depend on rain-fed cereals,
pulse, and oilseed production instead they have to use erratic rainfall as opportunities for
building small-sized irrigation dams. Finally, the author suggested that their irrigated land area
will be insurance for their rain-fed agriculture if and only if they accumulated heavy rainfall.
The author suggested to private peasant holders to use temperature resistance crop types
through communicating with the Kebels, Wereda, and Zones base Administrations. The
university across each zone has to introduce initiatives across each Woredas by supporting
farmers to identify which types of seed they are adopting i.e. improved seed adaptation and
traditional seed adaptation.
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Keywords
Cereals, Relative Humidity, One-Step System GMM, Pulse, Private Peasant Holders