The Effect of Improved Productivity of the Manufacturing Industry on the Ethiopian Economy: A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis
No Thumbnail Available
Date
2012-06
Authors
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Publisher
Addis Ababa University
Abstract
Ethiopia’s manufacturing industry is at the onset of development though there are recent upsurges in the number of firms. This study examines the effect of productivity improvement of the manufacturing sector on the macro economy, sectoral output, factor and household income and welfare of households. In order to investigate this impact, the study utilized the recursive dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. The recently updated 2005/06 Ethiopian SAM was used to calibrate the CGE framework. Three policy simulations of high, medium and low TFP growth rates were simulated on textile, leather, agro processing, and non-agro processing and overall manufacturing activities.
The study demonstrated that the manufacturing sector is a key driver of economic growth in particular; the findings suggest that productivity increase in textile, agro processing, and non-agro processing and overall manufacturing sector largely increases real GDP and sectoral outputs. Moreover, both rural and urban households are well-off in all the policy simulations. However, increasing the TFP of the leather sector alone showed no significant change on the macro variables like; real GDP, absorption, private consumption and investment. It also resulted in welfare loss to all households except rural poor. The study further extends its recommendation for Ethiopia to develop a strong industrial policy aimed towards promoting both agro and non-agro processing industries.
Description
Keywords
Ethiopia’s manufacturing industry