A Path to Low Carbon and Climate Friendly Transport Sector in Addis Ababa: System Dynamics Approach
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Date
2023-06-18
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AAU
Abstract
Urban transportation system is a complex system with multiple variables and nonlinear feedback loops
and influenced by transportation, social, economic, and environmental factors. Conventional
transportation modeling approaches are unsuitable to simulate and evaluate its performance. This paper
presents a system dynamics approach based on the cause-and-effect analysis and feedback loop
structures. The proposed SD model comprises population, economic development, number of vehicles,
environmental influence, travel demand and transport supply. The model runs in Vensim PLE software
using the data from Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. The impacts of different policy scenarios on transportation
system related carbon emission are analyzed. Ban imports of used vehicle, Energy shift and setting
emission standard have the capacity to reduce carbon emission with the magnitude of 17%, 59% and
43% respectively by 2030. The study suggests that a combination of policies to achieve a low
carbon and climate-friendly transport sector which will result a 74% decrease in carbon
emission by 2030
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Keywords
transport, carbon emission, system dynamics, Addis Ababa