Spatiotemporal Modeling of Short Message Service Traffic Distribution

No Thumbnail Available



Journal Title

Journal ISSN

Volume Title


Addis Ababa University


Short Message Service (SMS) is a widely used text messaging service on mobile devices. Business owners and companies look forward to new ways of promoting their services and products to reach and attract the intended users. However, SMS distribution is not investigated in Ethio Telecom with time and location. The current way of selecting customers to send bulk SMS is very costly and resource wastage. The concern of the thesis is to understand the SMS distribution and develop a spatiotemporal model of SMS traffic using city of Addis Ababa, Ethiopia as a case study. The dataset is extracted from SMS traffic of Ethio Telecom network system. The model selection is performed in time and space domain using Fourier Transform methods. By applying Fourier Transform, five major frequency components are identified with different magnitude of coefficients and phases. Then, the coefficient and phase values are transformed from spatial to spectral-domain by applying Two Dimensional Discrete Cosine Transform. The tools used are Matlab for traffic modeling, MapInfo to map geographical location and SPSS for analysis. Validation of the SMS traffic distribution model is done based on the R 2 coefficient of determination statistically. The accuracy of the proposed temporal model is evaluated with real SMS traffic data. The results show that these models can accurately describe the variation pattern of real SMS traffic. In the spatial model, the effect of the level of truncation on the frequency of transformed phase and coefficient on the model performance is evaluated. Finally, a mathematical model that captures the SMS traffic variation of any location in the city at any time of the day is developed. Furthermore, correlation analysis is done between outgoing and incoming SMS traffic. The general SMS usage trend of customers that respond to SMS advertisements was analyzed.The distribution model helps the Company to know the SMS traffic distribution, which in a way helps to understand the behaviours of its customers thereby saving cost and reducing resource wastage, and plan its marketing strategy accordingly.



SMS Traffic, bulk SMS, Spatiotemporal Modeling, SMS Traffic Distribution