A System Dynamic Analysis for Cement Production and Carbon Emissions in Ethiopia
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Date
2023-06-01
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AAU
Abstract
Cement production in Ethiopia is backbone for economic development by constructing large
projects such as Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), Mega Projects, road, etc.
Conversely, the concentration of CO2 emissions from cement sector is challenging issue to
future climate changes. Over time the demand for cement is increasing for housing and
infrastructure development, while the productivity of cement production among the factory is yet
poor. Most cement industry in Ethiopia use combustion of imported fossil fuels. However, these
leads to high concentration of CO2 emission, productions inefficiency, high cost of operations,
loss of productions due to various problem such as shortage of power, spare part, etc. and
vulnerability to climate change severity in Ethiopia. This study simulates and develops System
Dynamic Model for cement sector to explore endogenous behavior of variables within the model,
using Causal Loop Diagram and Stock-Flow Diagram. According to simulation of this study, at
end of 2030 the CO2 emission from cement industry is more than double, about 8.92mill.
tonsCO2 as compared to 4.37 mill. tonsCO2 in 2022, as well cement production also doubles at
the end of 2030 about 16.28 mill. tons. Thus, depict that the carbon emissions proportionally
increasing with cement productions. Therefore, the study recommends to utilizes alternative
renewable energy resource and modern technological kiln processor to improve their energy
efficacy and more productive as well as cope environmental burden of carbon emissions from
cement sector of Ethiopia.
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Keywords
Cement Production, CO2 emission, Energy Consumption, System Dynamic Model, Causal Loop Diagram, Stock-Flow Diagram