Macro Economic Implications of Financial Market Liberalization in Ethiopia
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Date
2005-06
Authors
Solomon Menelik
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
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Publisher
A.A.U
Abstract
This study has tried to assess the practical implications of financial market
development and liberalization on macroeconomic variables like saving,
investment, inflation and Economic growth in Ethiopia, using a time series data covering the period 1974/75 -2003/04. The Johansen Maximum likelihood estimation procedure has been employed to see the short and long-run dynamics of selected financial variables and major macroeconomic variables. To test the Mckinnon-Shaw hypothesis that removal of repressive policies and development of financial markets can enhance saving, investment and ultimately growth; the life-cycle saving model, the flexible accelerator model, Fry's inflation and Growth model were used as theoretical foundations. The result indicated that saving is positively and significantly affected by the real deposit rate of interest and income growth. Domestic investment has a positive long-run equilibrium. relationship with output growth whereas the real depreciation of the exchange rate and an increasing level of government debt on domestic financial system were found to affect investment negatively. Inflation was found to be non-responsive to the growth in per capita stock of money supply and income, reflecting the structural rigidity of the economy. Finally, liquid liabilities of the financial system showed a significant and positive relationship with growth in per capita income whereas variables which proxy private sector credit growth were found to be insignificant in both the saving and growth junctions.
Nevertheless, this study has certain limitations, i.e. it doesn't consider the
informal and semi-formal financial markets in the analysis due to in availability of organized data.
Description
Keywords
Financial Market, Liberalization in Ethiopia, Macro Economic Implications