Dynamic Strategic Planning for Rail Project Design
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Date
2014-09
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Publisher
AAU
Abstract
Nowadays, the railway transport infrastructure in Ethiopia is the major issues in relation to the
development of the country. To strengthen this infrastructure, related researches must be conducted at
the beginning of the construction of the sector.
This paper which mainly concerned about the dynamic strategic planning for rail project design is done
to predict and minimize failures caused by improper strategic planning. In most cases, financial
performance of railways deviates a lot from the forecasts. Means that, costs exceed predictions by far
and demand is less than what is forecasted. The logic behind this is that the financial performance of
the system can be improved if there is a pre specified plan for every possible future scenario.
The entire analysis is done for Ethiopian railway projects deeply for first phase projects. The objective
of this thesis is having a flexible plan for building and operating railway projects and to determine the
optimum planning. The method to be used is based on data collecting through actual visit of
construction site/area of concern and consult individuals for further clarification and confirmation.
Additionally interviews with selected key stakeholders involved into ports and corridors management
of railway operations area. Benefits of these options will be realized by arrival of new information as
time goes by. This flexibility can increase long term benefits and minimizing the possibility of
disastrous losses.
The final outcome of this study, based upon NPV and decision tree planning software is to construct
two routes and the construction of additional routes will be determined depending on the demand; i.e.
adding three more routes if the demand is high and keeping the existing routes if the demand is either
medium or low. The results obtained were found to be realistic and useful for the planning of Ethiopian
rail routes. Applications and an analysis of the Ethiopian rail project situation can help and improve the
financial performance of the current rail route.
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Keywords
Rail Project Design, Planning