Climate Change and Agricultural Productivity in Ethiopia: A Time Series Analysis
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Date
2020-10
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A.A.U
Abstract
The aim of this paper is to assess the impact of climate change on agricultural productivity of Ethiopia. In this study we use annual average temperature and precipitation variations as indicators of climate variation. The data for the analysis are obtained from World Development Indicators and Central Statistical Authority. Descriptive and econometric methods are employed to investigate the impacts. Since there is sufficient time series data, an ARDL model is used to estimate the long run and short run effects of climate change on agricultural productivity. Estimates of the ARDL model indicates both temperature and precipitation variation have significant negative impacts on agricultural productivity in the short run and a non-negative significant impact in the long run. On the other hand, the speed of adjustment (i.e. 0.369026) is found to be negative which shows past errors can be corrected in the current periods. Hence, from the study result climate change adaptation programs should be introduced to alleviate short run impacts of climate change; like provision of detailed forecast of weather for every region of the country and building infrastructure to hinder sudden damages of climate change on agricultural productivity ofEthiopia.
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Keywords
Agricultural productivity, Climate change, ARDL, Ethiopia