Epidemiological Study and Comments on two Highly Contagious Diseases in Africa
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Date
2020-09-09
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Addis Ababa University
Abstract
Epidemiological studies and comment on two highly contagious disease Ebola and Coronavirus Outbreak from the bases of Computational Science program and Epidemiological models considering Susceptible, Infected, Recovered, Vaccine, Quarantine and Death etc. trying to illustrate the activity of Ebola and Coronavirus disease Outbreak in many ways like figurative ways in different compartement which illustrate detail from Supceptible to Infected from infected to Recover stage and from infected to quarantine stage or death etc. And from that observation asesement method computitional by which I learnt in Computational science departement by appling mathimatical model using Ordinary differential equation,these equations model the dynamics of the transitions from the mathimatical model SIR,SIRD,SIRV,SIQR, and Algorithem, using Matlab codeing and plot. I learnt and recogized how the disease moves and behaves from one Compartement to another compartement and how it incline and decline of each activity on the figuer. By certain mathimatical model, by using algorthim by setting Matlab code and by plotting graphs through Matlab program, I tried to show how the cases of the Virus it behaves from one stage to another stage how it increases,decrease and recover from supceptable stage to infected stage and recoverd or quarntine (death) stage.
The progress between these sections could be presented as formal mathimatical terms to make quantitative predictions and interpolation,we can translate them into formal mathematical terms. This paper illustrate the stage of the diseases, the level of the diseases and describes by using mathematical models by using collective data in Table, Tabular form by ploting graphs to illustrates these models together with the kinds of mathimatical model analyses that have proved which is useful to epidemiologists. West Africa Ebola disease outbreaks from 2013-2019 and Coronavirus 2019-2020 has brought to light the significance of epidemic modeling and pandemic modeling at a time considered when many serious illnesses are no longer a threat to Public Health. Between regions and continents Countries the increasing connectivity makes it to understand the mechanisms that drive the spread of new acute illnesses and our ability to control them at the source more important now than ever before.
In general Epidemiology of the Ebola and Coronavirus in particular it is a disease, poorly understood, and capable of causing threat to Public Health and corona virus disease is considered analyzed statistically and model using the SIR,SIRD,SIRV, and SIQR model. Differential equation formulated the non-linear systems of solving numerically using MS-Excel and Mat-lab program over time period of 120 days. For simplicity, Democratic Republic of Congo, Liberia, Guinea West African Countries that was hit severely by EVD in 2014 was used for this study. As stated earlier, modeling infectious disease dynamics demands that we
investigate whether the disease spread could accomplish an epidemic level or pandemic it could be wiped out. The Ebola and covid-19 Virus is spread largely through contacts between an infected person and a non-infected person. Infected people cannot be entirely separated or quarantined from the rest of the large population in the case of Ebola but in the case of Covid-19 entirely we separate and isolate the infected person from the people. In the case of Ebola the separation can only be done when an infected person visits a health center but in the case of Corona virus we trace and isolate or separate them from the beginning we identify the person who is positive.
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Keywords
Epidemiological Models, Covid-19, Ebola, Herd Immunity, Sir Model, Euler’s Method, Equilibrium, Endemic Equilibrium, Disease Free Equilibrium, Non Pharmaceutical Interventions, Infection Rate, Recovery Rate