Adopting Freight Demand Forecasting Model for Addis Ababa-Djibouti Railway
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Date
2016-10
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Addis Ababa University
Abstract
Freight transportation is an essential component of any economic activity which makes a
continuous change as a result of growth but many economic activities depend on traffic congestion
and truck travel time along the origins and destinations which makes series problem mainly for
land locked countries like Ethiopia. This is because government and organization pay undesired
tax for the stay of goods at the port. In order to solve this problem different countries use different
forecasting models which are designed to predict the future need of the country.
This thesis work identifies major freight forecasting projection models, discusses those models,
chooses the better model based on the merits and demerits of each model and forecasts with one
of the classic freight forecasting model which is called four-stage aggregate model (hybrid with
its own parameters) to show how it works in the context of Ethiopia by taking traffic congestion
as a main problem.
As part of this work trip generated using growth factor and linear regression and mode choice
along the path has been done by incorporating the truck traffic count, commodity tonnage share
and an expense given to each item. This hybrid four-stage aggregate model which begins with trip
generation step and gives a result of 3,351,406 trips when working with Annual Growth Factor
(AGF) and 57,974 trips with linear regression method. And a comparison between this a model
and a model forecasted by ERC has been compared and found ERC model which generates
119,419 trips nearly comparable with linear regression method even though the parameters used
here are different. From the total number of trips generated trains took 79 percent mode share and
truck took remaining modal share. The distribution and an assignment step is not done because,
the demand investigating here focuses only origin and destination.
Finally the thesis find out forecasting with four-stage aggregate model(Hybrid model) which uses
traffic counts, commodity tonnage share and an expense growth rate given for each items as input
parameter is better model in order to generate number of trips along the line. This is because import
and export tonnage rates can easily affected by the influence of economy, industrial location
patterns, globalization of business, fuel prices,cumulatively can affect the traffic congestion
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Keywords
Addis Ababa-Djibouti Railway, Freight Demand, Freight Demand Forecasting Model