Modeling Spatio-Temporal Urban Land Use Changes: A Case of Burayu Town Using Remote Sensing and GIS Techniques
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Date
2019-10
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Addis Ababa University
Abstract
Urbanization is the most powerful and visible force that has fundamental changes Land Use
Land Cover around globe. High population increment leads to a quick expansion of urban
growth, causing changes in Land use Land Cover in many urban areas especially in developing
countries. Burayu Town population growth rapidly increased by 90 times within the past 35
(1984-2019) years and expansion of squatter houses is increased. The main objectives of this
study is that integrating GIS, Remote sensing and Land use Land cover Modeling tools to Model
Spatio temporal Urban Land use Changes of Burayu Town using Landsat of 1990,2000,2010
and 2019 year for the last three decades (1990-2019) and predict for future three decades
(2050). For this study using supervised classification method, Maximum likely hood algorithm,
the overall accuracy of Classified Burayu Town Land use for 1990,2000,2010 and 2019 is 88%,
92%, 93.6% and 97.6% and respectively and it is acceptable.
This study results show Urban land use land cover changes (urban expansion) of Burayu Town
area highly increased from 100 Ha (1%) to 4600Ha (46%) in last three decades (1990-2019)
and for future three decades 5800Ha (58%) in 2050 if Urban expansion is positive effect, and if
negative effect urban expansion is greater than this value is expected. Land Change Modeler
and Multi-Layer perceptron sub model used for modeling using Factors and constraints and
validating kappa statistic is moderate and acceptable to predict for future (2050). Now a days
Burayu Town Urban Planners and policy makers lacks accurate, timely and scientific method of
urban land use land cover changes and no scientific site selection for Housing development,
for monitoring and resolving the negative consequences, and make decision concerning Land
Resource management for better Land use management and Environmental development.
Burayu Town Urban planner, Land Administration offices and Environmental protection offices
use this basic information of urban Land use Land Cover changes and use scientifically site
selected for Housing development to solve the society problems and avoid risks. Federal and
Regional Government should give attention for the main problems of housing, infrastructure
services and losses of Agriculture Land by modifying Land policy and giving Land for housing.
Therefore modeling spatio temporal urban Land use Changes and predict for future is very
important for Burayu Town.
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Keywords
urbanization., Burayu Town, Urban Land use Land cover Change, Land satellites, decades, hectare (Ha), Population