A Comparative Analysis of the Determinants of Age at First Marriage and Marital Stability in Addis Ababa: 1990 and 1995
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Date
2000-06
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Addis Ababa University
Abstract
The present study tried to examine the important determinants of the nuptiality
variables 'age at first marriage' and 'the marital stability' ofreproductive
women in urban Addis Ababa for the time period of 1990 and 1995. Further, ali
attempt is also made to see whether there is any change in the importance of
variables in affecting the above two dependent variables ofnuptiality over time.
It is hypothesised that educational level, age at first marriage and migration
statuses of women are the three important factors that affect nuptiality.
The analysis is based on data from the 1990 National Family and Fertility
Survey and the 1995 Fertility Survey of Urban Addis Ababa conducted by the
Central Statistics Authority. A bi-variate analysis of background variables on
the nuptiality variables clearly showed a great variation in nuptialtiy by their
background variables such as age, place of birth, migration status, educational
levels, religion, ethnicity and work of the female respondents.
Selected important background variables that can be considered for studying the
determinants of 'age at first marriage' and 'marital stability' is decided by
applying the ANOYA and Chi-square tests on the independent variables. While
OLS regression model is applied to study the determinants of 'age at first
marriage ', Logistic regression model is applied to study the determinants of
'marital stability' in the present thesis. Application of the multivariate
techniques is decided based on the type of the dependent and independent
variables considered in the model. As stated in the hypothesis, the study is
carried out on the nuptiality data collected in period 1990 and 1995.The independent variables considered in the multiple regression analysis in
both periods were place of birth, migration status, educational levels, religion,
and husband literacy level. Similarly, the independent variables considered in
the logistic regression analysis were age at first marriage, place of birth,
migration status, educational levels, etlmicity and duration of marriage.
As such a comparative analysis is made in the entire study. Results of the
multiple regression analysis carried out in 1990 and 1995 data clearly show that
education of females (Grade 9+) is the most important variable that determines
the age at first marriage offemales in the study area in both 1990 and 1995.
Besides, place of birth is the second important variable in detelmining age at
first marriage in 1995.
Results of the logistic regression on ' marital stability ' seem to show that after
ethnicity, the most important variable that affect the 'marital stability' is age atfirst marriage and then followed by education of women (Grade 9+) in both
1990 and 1995. The results also show that migration is also one of the
important variables that is affecting age at first marriage and marital stability in
urban Addis Ababa during the study period. However, its affect is seen to be on
the opposite direction, unlike the affect of education of women, which is in the
expected direction in affecting age at first marriage and marital stability.
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Keywords
Comparative Analysis of the Determinants