Trade Liberalization, Inequality and Poverty in Ethiopia: A Dynamic Computable General Equilibrium Microsimulation AnalysiS
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Date
2009-06
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A.A.U
Abstract
This study examines the short run and long run impacts of unilateral trade liberalization, in terms
of' a complete and instantaneous import tariff removal, on sectors of the ethiopian economy and
household poverty and inequality, The study utilized a dynamic sequential model employing a top-down
approach to carry out the microsimulaton analysis of poverty and inequality we used WB SAM of 1999/2000 and CSA household survey of 1999/2000 that comprises of 17332 households.
The main findings of the analysis are complete and instantaneous tariff removal in the Ethiopian economy
would lead to a worsening of poverty in the short run, and contraction of the initially protected industry.
Particularly industry and services. In the long run trade liberalization combined with capital accumulation
reduces poverty and swells sectors that were contrasted in the short run the growth effect captured by the
model contributes to the expansion of all sectors, particularly agriculture and reduces poverty, the decomposition of changes in poverty indicates growth is pro-poor.
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General Equilibrium, Ethiopia