Mitigating Fashion Obsolescence Risk through Transit Time Reduction: An Agent Based Modeling Study of Apparel Supply Chain
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Date
2025-06
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Addis Ababa University
Abstract
The global fashion industry is experiencing rapid trend acceleration, with styles shifting every three to four months due to social media influence and fast fashion dynamics. This short lifecycle increase the risk of fashion obsolescence, especially for manufacturers in developing countries like Ethiopia, where delayed deliveries lead to missed market windows and financial loss.in the bole lemi special economic zone (BLSEZ), a major garment manufacturing hub, long transit times caused by inefficient logistics infrastructure, slow customs procedures, and underperforming logistics agents reduce the competitiveness of local manufacturers and threaten the zone’s ability to retain global investment. This study aims to mitigate the risk of fashion obsolescence by improving logistics responsiveness and reducing supply chain transit time within BLSEZ. A mixed methods approach was employed, including surveys, interviews, document review, and direct observation to assess the current logistics performance and stakeholder capacity. Based on this empirical data, an agent modeling technique was used to simulate and evaluate three improvement scenarios: introducing new logistics agents, improving the performance of existing agents by 10%, and combining both strategies. Each scenario was analyzed to determine its effectiveness in enhancing delivery speed and supply chain reliability. The results showed meaningful improvements across all scenarios, with scenario 1 achieving a 40.52% transit time reduction, scenario 2 yielding a 34.45% improvement, and scenario 3 producing the most significant result with a 58.74% reduction. A phased implementation is proposed: short term (within 1 year) incentives to attract competitive logistics firms, followed by medium and long term improvements in customs clearance infrastructure, technology use, and production speed reduce 58.74% obsolescence risk. These findings highlight the critical of integrated logistics strategies in aligning Ethiopia’s garment industry with the time sensitive demands of the global fashion market. The study provides evidence based insights for policymakers, and manufacturers seeking to enhance competitiveness through responsive
supply chain systems.
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Keywords
fashion trend, transit time, optimization, risk, ABM