Development of Water Allocation for Genale Dawa River Basin Under Climate Change and Future Development Scenarios

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Addis Ababa University


Population growth, urbanization, and industrialization are occurring at an ever-increasing phase. These processes result in an increased demand for water in all sectors. Water is not only influenced by human activities, but also by natural factors, such as climate change. It is in the Genale Dawa Basin that the higher percentage of people under the poverty line in the country (NAPA 7).The region is known with subsistence farming and pastoral livelihood facing frequent drought and rainfall declining abruptly and Climate change is expected to worsen the problem of rainfall variability, and associated drought and flood disasters. The objective of this thesis is to model the water resources system to develop a water allocation system for the Genale Dawa river basin under climate change and future development scenarios using a computer-based modeling tool Water Evaluation and Planning System Model (WEAP). Records of hydrology, meteorology, and irrigation water supply for the study area are statistically tested and arranged as an input file source to suit the model. Meteorological and CORDEX Africa RCM 8.5 climatic data were corrected with multi-regression and distribution mapping (DM) method respectively and the two data were also correlated with each other. The model calibration, validation, and its statistical measure were seen and therefore the result shows that it's good and the model can simulate the current and future scenarios. The results of this analysis revealed the study found No quantity of unmet demand in the in reference Scenario from the years 1990 to 2018 for all cumulative demands. Similarly in the coming future Development scenario I Short term analysis period (2019–2030) and long term analysis period (2031–2050) among the total water requirement the unmet Demand for domestic and livestock water demand in each period became 13.72% and 15.72% of the total Water demand . Although for the Climate change scenario II for constant total cumulative water demand of 759.6Mm 3 in Short term and long term period 10.97% and 9.48% of the total demand is Unmet in the analysis respectively. And For Scenario III (combination scenario) both the future development and climate change effect on sectional demand are considered and analyzed. Based on the simulation results from the total demand in short term period (2019 – 2030) and long term period (2031- 2050) the total unmet demand is found to be 10.97% and 12.73% of the total demand is Unmet respectively.



Water Evaluation and Planning System Model (WEAP), CORDEX Africa, Regional Climate Model (RCM), Distribution Mapping (DM)