Development of Water Allocation for Genale Dawa River Basin Under Climate Change and Future Development Scenarios
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Date
2020-06
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Addis Ababa University
Abstract
Population growth, urbanization, and industrialization are occurring at an ever-increasing phase.
These processes result in an increased demand for water in all sectors. Water is not only influenced
by human activities, but also by natural factors, such as climate change. It is in the Genale Dawa
Basin that the higher percentage of people under the poverty line in the country (NAPA 7).The
region is known with subsistence farming and pastoral livelihood facing frequent drought and
rainfall declining abruptly and Climate change is expected to worsen the problem of rainfall
variability, and associated drought and flood disasters. The objective of this thesis is to model the
water resources system to develop a water allocation system for the Genale Dawa river basin under
climate change and future development scenarios using a computer-based modeling tool Water
Evaluation and Planning System Model (WEAP). Records of hydrology, meteorology, and
irrigation water supply for the study area are statistically tested and arranged as an input file source
to suit the model. Meteorological and CORDEX Africa RCM 8.5 climatic data were corrected
with multi-regression and distribution mapping (DM) method respectively and the two data were
also correlated with each other. The model calibration, validation, and its statistical measure were
seen and therefore the result shows that it's good and the model can simulate the current and future
scenarios. The results of this analysis revealed the study found No quantity of unmet demand in
the in reference Scenario from the years 1990 to 2018 for all cumulative demands. Similarly in the
coming future Development scenario I Short term analysis period (2019–2030) and long term
analysis period (2031–2050) among the total water requirement the unmet Demand for domestic
and livestock water demand in each period became 13.72% and 15.72% of the total Water demand
. Although for the Climate change scenario II for constant total cumulative water demand of
759.6Mm
3
in Short term and long term period 10.97% and 9.48% of the total demand is Unmet in
the analysis respectively. And For Scenario III (combination scenario) both the future development
and climate change effect on sectional demand are considered and analyzed. Based on the
simulation results from the total demand in short term period (2019 – 2030) and long term period
(2031- 2050) the total unmet demand is found to be 10.97% and 12.73% of the total demand is
Unmet respectively.
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Keywords
Water Evaluation and Planning System Model (WEAP), CORDEX Africa, Regional Climate Model (RCM), Distribution Mapping (DM)