Land use land cover Dynamics in Post-Resettlement Areas using Cellular Automata model: The case of Gubalafto Woreda

No Thumbnail Available



Journal Title

Journal ISSN

Volume Title


Addis Ababa Universty


Land use land cover pattern of a region is an outcome of natural and socio-economic factors and their utilization by man in time and space. Land is becoming a scarce resource due to immense agricultural and demographic pressure. In this study the land use land cover dynamics and modelling in post-resettlement areas of Gubalfto Woreda have been under taken. This study aims to examine and analyze the spatial and temporal variations of land use land cover conditions and model trends of change using cellular automata model by assessing the historical patterns of land use land cover in past 32 years and determining the trend, nature, rate, location and magnitudes of the changes. The study also looks the future land use land cover change. To serve these objectives, field survey, field data collection,1973 MSS,1986 TM and 2006 image, topographic maps and Arial photo were used. In addition slope, proximity to road, altitude, rain fall, population density, settlement, water body, and forest parameters were used to run the CA-Markov model and to predict the future land use land cover changes. The result of the work shows a reduction by 2 % in settlement and by 4 % in agriculture between 1973 and 1986.While the periods between 1986 and 2005 shows an increase in agriculture by 62.5% and settlement by 46%. The trend and rate by which land use land cover has changed also shows that there are reduction in agriculture and settlement between 1973 and 1986 by2.6 km2 and1.5 km2 per year, respectively. This was because of the 1984/85 resettlement program large number of people leaves their settlement and agricultural land. Whereas, between 1986 and 2005 agriculture and settlement increased by 3.29 km2 and 2.41 km2 per year than the other classes. This change is because the settlers returned to their origin after resettlement program has passed. Therefore, agriculture and settlements are the main drivers of land use land cover change, which are in turn direct consequences of population growth. It was also observed that the predicted land use classes by 2020 may likely follow the same trend as that of 1986/2005, which means there is an increase in agriculture by 23.5% and settlement by 92% from 2005 but the forest coverage increase by 146 %. The rate of change in 2020 will be increased in agriculture and settlement by 5.4 km2 and by 5 km2 per year and bush land will decrease by 10 km2 per year. Hence, resettlement has a direct relation with land use land cover change and dynamics. Key words: Land use /land cover, Resettlement, CA_Markov model, MCE.



Land use /land cover, Resettlement, CA_Markov model, MCE.