Pharmacology

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Forecasting Accuracy of Anti Retroviral Medicines and its Contributing Factors: the Case of Ethiopian Pharmaceutical Supply Service
(Addis Ababa University, 2022-07) Mahlet Tibebu; Tariku Jebena
Quantification is one of the core process of supply chain management. Its performance needs to be measured to check whether the set targets are met or not. Performance of quantification is measured by forecasting accuracy. Forecasting accuracy is a measure of how close the actual demand is to the forecast quantity. Accuracy of forecasts heavily relies on data availability, quality of data, quantification procedures and tools, assumptions made, skill and experience of forecasting experts. EPSS have not analysed forecasting accuracy of both RDF and program pharmaceuticals for the previous five years (2014-2018 G.C.).This study was carried out to assess forecasting accuracy of ART medicines and explore reasons for deviation.