Browsing by Author "Worku Alemayehu"

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    Application of Data Mining for Predicting Adult Mortality.
    (Addis Abeba University, 2012-06) Hailemariam Tesfahun; Meshesha Million; Worku Alemayehu
    Background: The fast-growing, tremendous amount of data, collected and stored in large and massive data repositories, has far exceeded human ability for comprehension without powerful tools. As a result, data collected in large data repositories become seldom visited. This in turn, calls the application of data mining technology. Every year, more than 7·7 million children die before their fifth birthday. However, over three times those of nearly 24 million adults die every year. Less attention has been given to adults which are the most productive phase of life for both economic and social ramification of families and countries. Objective: The general objective of this research is to construct adult mortality predictive model using data mining techniques so as to identify and improve adult health status using BRHP open cohort database. Methods: The hybrid model that was developed for academic research was followed. Dataset is preprocessed for missing values, outliers and data transformation. Decision tree and Naïve Bayes algorithms were employed to build the predictive model by using a sample dataset of 62,869 records of both alive and died adults through three experiments and six scenarios. Result: In this study as compared to Bayes, the performance of J48 pruned decision tree reveals that 97.2% of accurate results are possible for developing classification rules that can be used for prediction. If no education in family and the person is living in rural highland and lowland, the probability of experiencing adult death is 98.4% and 97.4% respectively with concomitant attributes in the rule generated. The likely chance of adult to survive in completed primary school, completed secondary school, and further education is (98.9%, 99%, 100%) respectively. Conclusion: The study suggests that education plays a considerable role as a root cause of adult death, followed by outmigration. Further comprehensive and extensive experimentation is needed to substantially describe the loss experiences of adult mortality in Ethiopia.
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    Application of Data Mining Technique to Develop Chronic Disease Distribution Map using Drug Distribution Data in Ethiopia
    (Addis Abeba University, 2013-04) Zerihun Marara; Worku Alemayehu; Jemaneh Getachewu
    Background: Due to the great difference in population structure, geographic environment, food composition, ethnicity and lifestyle, it could be predicted that there may be significant differences of chronic disease forms and distribution in the various administrative areas. The amount of data getting generated in any sector these days is enormous. There are many data mining tools and technique to uncover hidden knowledge in the data. At the same time Ethiopian PFSA has huge and useful drug distribution data in their data base to investigate chronic disease distribution. Objective: The purpose of this study is to investigate distribution of chronic diseases in various administrative areas of the country based on chronic disease drug distribution data applying data mining techniques. Methods: Drug distribution data was collected from EPFSA. Data that are retrieved from the organization is from 2003 up to 2005 EC. Since annual data follow is high and distribution density is the same, two and half year’s data is enough to produce distribution map and identify increase in demand applying data mining technology. Any data beyond these years are redundant and over saturate the models. In order to optimize the desired outcome the researcher has followed Hybrid data mining process model. The model is selected because it is appropriate for academic research; it combines the best features of KDD and CRISP; and starts with problem domain understanding. Results: The study revealed that some drugs are more important at one hub than the other. Gullele hub received the high-test percentage of Athma (17.3%), Cardiac (38.5%), Diabetes (45.6%) and Hypertension (28.99%). While Parkinson drugs are issued mostly to Mekele (15.5%)hub. The mining software revealed that some drugs are more important at one hub than the other in specified time. Conclusions: Issue date, issue number and expiry dates are selected as best attribute by the mining tool. Based on discussion with domain experts issue date is important for drug distribution while issue number and expiry date are not relevant to the drug distribution.
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    Assessment of Substance Use and Risky Sexual Behavior Among High School and Preparatory School Students In Jabi Tehinan Woreda, Ethiopia
    (Addis Ababa University, 2017-08-05) Worku Alemayehu; Belay Gurja (PhD)
    The use of substances such as alcohol, khat leaves (Catha edulis), and tobacco has become one of the rising major public health and socio-economic problems worldwide. High school and Preparatory school adolescents are assumed to be exposed to many risky sexual behaviors by the influence of substance use. However few studies have been explored about the pattern of risky sexual behavior and its association with substance use in Jabi Tehinan woreda high school and preparatory school students. The main objective of this study was to determine the prevalence of Substance Use (alcohol, khat, cigarette and illicit drugs) and Risky Sexual Behavior of students in Jabi Tehinan woreda High school and Preparatory School, Northwest Ethiopia. A cross-sectional study design was employed using a pre-tested self-administered questionnaire. The study was conducted in February 2017. A total of 411 students were selected using systematic random sampling method. The data were analyzed using SPSS for windows version 24. Descriptive statistics by using frequency, percentage distribution and logistic regression analyses were performed to ascertain association between dependent and independent variables after removing the incomplete responses. Of 411 study participants; use of alcohol, khat, cigarette and illicit drugs was reported by 39.4%, 4.4%, 1.5% and 0.7% students, respectively. There were significant differences between males and females with respect to substance use behavior; multiple sexual partner and unprotected sex were reported by 13.7% and 33.3% of the students respectively. Alcohol drink was associated with risky sexual behavior compared to those who did not take alcohol with adjusted OR (95% CI) of 2.46(1.03, 5.91). But khat chewing, cigarette smoking and illicit drugs did not have an association with multiple sexual partner and unprotected sex in the multivariate analysis. Use of alcohol was significantly associated with risky sexual behavior. This study suggests a need for interventions and designs a strategy to reduce the levels of substance use and enhancing protective sexual behavior.