Browsing by Author "Tadesse, Amanuel"

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    Do Asymmetric J-curve Phenomenon Evident for Ethiopia: An Application of Heterogeneous Panel ARDL Model to its Major Trading Partners
    (A.A.U, 2021-09) Tadesse, Amanuel; Araya, Mesele (phD)
    Investigating the existence of the J-curve phenomenon of the trade balance in response to devaluation and examining its asymmetric relationships for panel data analysis of 28 major Ethiopia’s trading partner were objective of this study. The data coverage is from 1992 to 2020 and is estimated using the Pooled Mean Group (PMG) approach which is determined by Hausman (1978) test, in both the linear and nonlinear ARDL frameworks. This study differs from prior studies by its model specification, including nonlinearities estimation technique, utilizing a modified version of the conventional trade balance model (standard bilateral trade plus gravity model approach), which is more suited for bilateral trade analysis. Under linear panel ARDL analysis seven bilateral trade connections have J-curve effects, based on the assumption of symmetric exchange rate effects. The J-curve effects are real in 20 situations when the estimate is performed assuming asymmetric effects. Long-run and short-run asymmetries are also verified, and it is demonstrated that simultaneous bilateral real exchange rate depreciation improves the long-run trade balance. Since the agricultural export compositions remained relatively constant, and total exports continued to worsen in 1984/85, declining by 55.95 percent in 1991/92 from prior decades. Following the overthrow of the military dictatorship and the EPRDF's takeover of the government and takes different policy measures (like currency devaluation) the quantities of oilseeds, pulses, meat products, fruits and vegetables, live animals, chat, and gold, on the other hand, have changed dramatically and indicate a substantial improvement, composed 11.39%, 5.27%, 1.55%, 1.44%, 2.15%, 9.49% and 9.01% respectively of overall export value during 1991/92-2019/20. Thus both the descriptive and empirical analysis of the study confirms existence of J curve phenomenon in the case of Ethiopia with major trading partners. Imply that a devaluation strategy can be utilized to improve Ethiopia's export competitiveness in the long run.
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    Value Chain and Cost Benefit Analysis of Honey Production and its Implication on Household Food Security: A Comparative Analysis of Certified and Conventional Honey in Ginbo Wereda, Southern Ethiopia
    (Addis Ababa University, 2011-06) Tadesse, Amanuel; Seyoum, Aseffa(PhD)
    This research analyzes value chain, cost benefit and household food security implications of certified organic and conventional honey at Ginbo Wereda, Keffa Zone of southern Ethiopia. The research also assesses the socioeconomic conditions for both certified and conventional honey producers. There are six Kebeles at Ginbo Wereda where certified organic honey producers operate. Yayebito is one of these Kebeles that was taken as a sample to be contrasted with the conventional honey producers at Diri Kebele. Value chain actors and their roles were identified in both conventional and certified organic honey using profit margin analysis. There are ten and two direct actors in conventional and certified honey value chains, respectively. The cost benefit analysis for certified organic and conventional honey producers reveals that the former group incurs lower unit production cost than the latter one. The net revenue is found to be significantly higher at the certified organic honey producers. The certified organic honey producers that sell raw and semi processed honey, obtain significantly higher margin than the conventional honey producers. Apart from that, the certified organic honey producers are more reliant on family labor than hired labor unlike the conventional honey producers. This is attributed to various trainings that were received by the former group. Organic certification of honey made a significant difference on the status of food security condition between certified organic and conventional honey producers. The food security condition of the certified organic honey producers has been increasing in the past years of stay under organic certification. Organic certification was one of the main factors contributing to the household food security. On the other hand, the majority of the conventional honey producers’ food security status remained the same for the same period of time. The frequency of harvest is higher in the certified organic honey producers than the counter group, which in turn puts an impact on the volume of honey harvested and net revenue received. The wealth status and asset accumulation of certified organic honey producers has increased at post certification. This indicates that their purchasing ability is improving, which provides wider access to food. Food consumption is also one component of food security and the average meal frequency per day is higher at the certified organic honey producers than the counter group. Household food insecurity access scale was one of the tools employed to assess the food insecurity condition among both groups. Based on the thirty days recall data the certified organic honey producers have lesser household food insecurity access scale sore than the conventional honey producers. Organic certification was thus among the major factors that contributed to the improved food security status of the certified organic honey producers.