Browsing by Author "Mestewat Simeon"

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    Impacts of land use land cover dynamics and climate change and variability on ecosystem services in Maze National Park and its environs, southwestern Ethiopia
    (Addis Ababa University, 2025-06-01) Mestewat Simeon; Desalegn Wana (PhD)
    This study was aimed at exploring the impacts of land use land cover (LULC) and climate changes on ecosystem services in Maze national park and its environs in southwestern Ethiopia. The study employed Landsat imageries for LULC change analysis from which landscape structural attributes were computed and the values of ecosystem services were calculated. Climate data were collected from the Ethiopian meteorological services agency, southern district office, and the WorldClim database. In addition, socioeconomic data were collected to assess local community perceptions of LULC change, ecosystem service dynamics, and their interactions. LULC classification was performed using the Random Forest classifier, and ecosystem service values (ESVs) were estimated through the benefit transfer method whereas, climate trend analysis was computed using the Mann-Kendall and innovative trend analysis. The Multi-Layer Perceptron neural network method was applied for LULC change prediction, while climate change projections were based on Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5). Pearson and Spearman correlations were used to analyze ecosystem services-climate relationships, trade-offs, synergies, and predicted climate change impacts on ecosystem services. Spatial trade-offs and synergies were analyzed using the Local Moran’s I model. The results indicate significant expansion of croplands and built-up areas, while wooded grasslands, riverine forests, water bodies declined. From 1985 to 2020, overall ESVs declined from 2038.42 million USD to 1628.72 million USD. As for the individual ESVs, only food production increased, while all other services declined. The climate trend analysis revealed a decreasing trend in mean annual and main rainy season rainfall, while temperatures (mean annual, maximum and minimum) exhibited an increasing trend. Spatial and temporal correlations showed that ecosystem services were positively correlated to mean annual and main rainy season rainfall, but negatively associated with mean annual, maximum, and minimum temperatures. The landscape metrics indicated an increase in the number of patches, patch density and edge density, suggesting landscape fragmentation. Spatial and temporal analyses showed a strong trade-off between food production and water supply, raw materials, and climate regulation services, while other services demonstrated strong synergies. Under the business-as usual scenario, water supply, raw materials, and climate regulation are expected to decline. In contrast, under the governance scenario, all key ecosystem services are anticipated to increase significantly by 2050. Temperature negatively correlated with key ecosystem services under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, while precipitation positively correlated with these services. These findings support the development of strategies for land use management, ecosystem conservation and restoration, and climate change mitigation and adaptation to minimize the impacts of LULC and climate changes on ecosystem services. Key words: climate variability, landscape metrics, local Moran’s I model, synergies and trade-offs