Browsing by Author "Mersha, Gemechis"

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    The Economy Wide Impact of Bio-fuel Investment in Ethiopia: A Recursive Dynamic Computable General Equilibrium Micro-simulation Analysis
    (Addis Ababa University, 2012-10) Mersha, Gemechis; Alemu, Tekie (PhD)
    The share of fuel import in total imports of goods for Ethiopia rose from 12% in 2005/06 to 20.1% in 2010/2011. In 2008 the country’s oil bill exceeded the total export earnings. The high and often fluctuating fuel prices have frustrated development efforts in the country. This has triggered policy makers to review the energy development strategies and search for mechanisms that minimize dependence on high-cost imported fossil oil. An important mechanism identified in this area is to substitute fossil fuels with domestically produced bio-fuel. Currently, investments in biofuel with the aim of producing ethanol and bio-diesel are underway in different parts of the country. This study investigates the impact of biofuel investments on growth, poverty and food security in Ethiopia using a dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model linked to micro simulation (MS) model. The CGE model uses the 2005/06 social accounting matrix (SAM) and the MS model uses the 2004/05 Household Income, Consumption and Expenditure (HICE) survey. The results suggest that biofuel investment provide a new opportunity to enhance economic growth and poverty reduction. Our results also show the complementarities between ‘biofuel’ and ‘food’ production.
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    Sesame Production, Climate Change Adaptation and Food Security in Western Ethiopia
    (Addis Ababa University, 2020-06) Mersha, Gemechis; Assefa PhD, Engdawork
    Ethiopia is the country mainly vulnerable to climate change which has already posed grave threats to agricultural production, food security and human wellbeing. The purpose of this study is to examine sesame production, vulnerability, adaptation and food security relationship of smallholder farmers in West Ethiopia. Specifically, it is to examine the determining factors of farmers’ decision to participate in sesame production; to explore adaptation options and identify factors impacting smallholders’ decision in practicing adaptation to climate change measures; climate change; to examine the status and determinants of food security of smallholder farmers’; to evaluate the impact of climate change adaptation options sesame production and household food security. The research employed key informant interviews, focused group discussions and a survey of 400 sampled households to collect data from the study area. Descriptive methods, index, and econometrics models were used to analyze the data. Descriptive statistics such as frequency, mean, chi-square, t-tests, and one way ANOVA were used. Double-hurdel model (probit and truncated), rainfall satisfaction index, multinomial logit model, household food insecurity access scale, binary logit model and two stage least square model were employed to examine the data. The result indicates that sesame production decision is significantly constrained by farmers’ resource endowment and market information. Smallholders with more education, land, food access and credit access are more likely to plant sesame. The study discloses that households experienced higher exposure to climate change and variability. The result reveal that agronomic practices, livelihood diversification, soil and water conservation and small-scale irrigation were the main adaptation strategies to overcome the adverse of changing climate in the study area. It is also observed that adopting agronomic practices is significantly and positively impacted by availability of early warning system, social capital and number of crop failure experience; while market distance and farm size negatively influenced it. Soil and water conservation practices are influenced positively by farm size, market distance and existence of early warning systems. Further, access to credit, social capital, and educational status of household heads positively affected adoption of small-scale irrigation. The results revealed that 65.8% of sampled households are food secure, while the remaining is not. The results shows the effectiveness of climate adaptation strategies namely agronomic practices, small-scale irrigation and soil and water conservation in reducing climatic hazards and ensuring household food security. Additionally, land holding, family size and livestock ownership are significant factors influencing household food security. The study further indicates that adoption of soil and water conservation, livelihood diversification and employing different agronomic practices has significant impact on the level of sesame production. The result also implicitly indicated that farmers continued to adapt sesame production under changing climate and it contributes to farmers’ food security enhancement. The result imply programs that endorse farmers’ access to credit, alternative income earning sources, and establishing updated sesame market price information flow and appropriate selling channels would be of paramount importance in improving and shifting rural farming in to market-oriented and export potential high value crops like sesame. The study further suggests the importance of developing resilience-building climate change adaptation strategies. Accordingly, a policy that promotes the adoption of agronomic practices, livelihood diversification, soil and water conservation and small-scale irrigation practices should be essential in food security program and improvement of sesame production in the study area. Moreover, in order to enhance the role of adoption of adaptation options in reducing the impact of changing climate the policy should give emphasis for: creating effective early warning system and efficient micro-finance institutions, improving infrastructures and increasing farmers’ climate adaptation awareness and stand by.