Browsing by Author "Gutema, Paulos"

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    Export Instability and Economic Growth in Sub Sahara African Countries
    (A.A.U, 1999-06) Gutema, Paulos; Bedri K., Abdulhamid (Dr)
    The study attempts to investigate the impact of uncertainty generated by export earning instability on economic growth. Through this investigation the degree to which outward oriented economic policy will be reliable for the purpose of accelerating economic growth is also be examined. After detail review of theoretical and empirical foundation of the policy, a model that links variable of uncertainty to economic performance is developed. Moreover, from the model, the condition under which outward oriented economic policy contributes favourably, to economic growth is set theoretically. Furthermore, the model and the conditions were estimated based on available statistical data. From the estimates, it can be inferred that, to benefit from outward oriented economic policy in terms of economic growth, the stable component of export revenue of the region has to grow substantially. if this condition is not satisfied the policy acts adversely on economic performance. Lastly, if the condition cannot be met and the adverse effect is not affordable, the estimates indicate that there should exist an external mechanism that absorbs the growth of uncertainty coming from international trade.