Browsing by Author "Fekadu Legesse"

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    Impact of Land Use and Land Cover Changes on Ecosystem Services in the Upper Awash River Basin, Central Ethiopia. a Path to Sustainability
    (Addis Ababa University, 2025-04) Fekadu Legesse; Teshome Soromessa; Sileshi Degefa
    Land use and land cover changes have a significant impact on ecosystem services, which can potentially contribute to long-term climate change. This study evaluates the effects of Land Use and Land Cover (LULC) changes on ecosystem services in the Upper Awash River Basin from 1993 to 2023. Land use and land cover maps for each period were generated from Landsat images in ArcGIS. The study adopted image processing and a supervised classification approach using the maximum likelihood classifier. The accuracy of LULC classifications was evaluated using error matrices derived from ground truth points. A stratified systematic sampling design was applied using 10 m × 20 m rectangular plots, with the number of plots determined by the size and type of land use. A total of 498 plots were established to assess carbon stocks and environmental parameters. In forest and shrubland plots, trees and shrubs with a DBH ≥ 5 cm were measured, while soil samples were collected from 1 m² subplots within the main plots across all four land use types. Remote sensing, ArcGIS, and the InVEST model were used to map changes in LULC, carbon stock and Ecosystem Services Value (ESV). The current carbon stocks in the basin were calculated using a linear regression model, with the Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) proving to be the more reliable indicator for calculating carbon stocks than other indices (NDVI and SAVI) due to its ability to minimize the effects of soil, atmosphere, and background noise. The overall ESV for the basin were computed using global coefficient values. The results from LULC analysis demonstrated that forestland, shrubland, and wetland areas experienced substantial declines of 27.4%, 41.6%, and 60.6%, respectively, while cropland and built-up areas expanded by 9% and 154%. These shifts in land cover are primarily driven by agricultural expansion, urbanization, and socio-economic factors such as population growth and poverty. This led to a 15% decrease in the overall carbon stock of the basin from 17.3 million tons in 1993 to 14.8 million tons in 2023. The estimated carbon stock from the developed EVI linear regression model was 15,904,158.24 tons, with an average carbon stock value of 111.96 tons per hectare. The study also found a 13.14% decrease in the ESV over the study period, amounting to a loss of US$ 227.54 million. While provisioning ecosystem services (such as food and water supply) increased by $37.25 million, regulating services (carbon sequestration and water regulation) saw a substantial decrease of $194.58 million. This highlights the trade-offs between land use for agriculture and the long-term environmental benefits that ecosystems provide. The study found that the ESV was relatively insensitive to land-use changes, as the sensitivity coefficients were all less than one. This suggests that while LULC changes impact ecosystem services, the overall effect remains stable. The basin's transformation due to LULC changes is a critical concern that intertwines environmental sustainability with socioeconomic stability. Thus, the findings offer valuable insights for policymakers, environmental agencies, land management authorities, and local communities in the Basin. These insights can guide sustainable land use practices by strengthening land use planning, promoting afforestation and reforestation, biodiversity conservation, climate change mitigation, ecosystem restoration, and improvements to local community wellbeing.