Browsing by Author "Demeke, Mulat (Dr)"

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    Assessment of the Impact of Productive Safety Net program on Household Welfare: The Case of Adami Tulu Jido Kombolcha Wereda, East Shoa, Oromia Regional State
    (A.A.U, 2008-06) Yadete, Tadesse; Demeke, Mulat (Dr)
    This study reports both theoretical and empirical findings on the impact of productive safety net in Adami Tulu Jido Kombolcha wereda, East Shoa Zone of Oromia regional state. The main objective of this study is to assess the impacts of Productive safety net transfers on household welfare. The analysis was made using the household data collected from three kebeles (Chetu Cetu, Werja Weshgula and Hurufa Lole). The study looked at the household characteristics and the descriptive result shows that there are interesting differences in the composition of PSNP beneficiary and non-beneficiary households, which suggest that certain demographic criteria might have been used in targeting households for the PSNP. Thus, female-headed and older-headed households are generally more vulnerable and more likely to need support than male-headed households. The probit regression analysis result shows that among other variables included in the study household labour, beneficiary dummy, education dummy, ox holding, number of oxen and age have been significant in determining household welfare. As it was hypostasized beneficiary, ox holding and household labour are positively related to the probability of increase in welfare. Age, education dummy and number of oxen negatively and strongly related to changes in welfare over the last year. Therefore, the probability of improving welfare of the respondents is significantly affected by households being beneficiary of safety net program
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    Economic Performance of Ethiopia (1972-1995): Growth Determinants and Implications
    (A.A.U, 1996-05) Chane, Seyoum; Demeke, Mulat (Dr)
    An assessment of the Ethiopian economy indicates poor performance of the commodity producing sector most notably agriculture, low domestic sayings, weak private investment, extremely low foreign investment inflow, deterioration of living standards, unemployment and poor social and physical infrastructure. This paper looks into the performance of the Ethiopian economy over the period 1971172- 1994/95. Looking into the empirical determinants of the Ethiopian economic growth (or the likely causes of the inadequate long term record growth) during 1968-1995 the result indicates that growth of population, share of government consumption to GDP, and growth in money supply affect GDP per capita growth negatively. Variables as lagged ratio of agricultural output to real GDP, real export growth, percentage change in real effective exchange rate, and share of real trade balance in real GDP on economic growth are found to be a significant contributing factors for the economic growth. In contrast growth of capital formation (substantially dominated by government investment), and human capital showed no evidence that explains at least the poor growth performance, which may be attributed to the measurement problems. The paper further concludes that the specification for testing the possible export growth nexus through its direct and beneficial externality effects on the rest of the economy has shown no evidence and has no satisfactory explanatory power. It follows that policies that favorably affect the agricultural sector; reduce government consumption (with out reducing government investment); maintain external competitiveness; improve real effective exchange rate; create conducive environment for private sector investment, foreign capital inflow, and export diversification; slow population growth, and encourage human capital development are found to be important
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    Education, Training and Agricultural Technology Adoption in Resource Poor Areas of North Wollo: The Case of Meket Woreda
    (A.A.U, 1999-06) Tassew, Mulugeta; Demeke, Mulat (Dr)
    Inspite of its important contribution to the Ethiopian economy at large, the performance of agriculture was disappointing for decades. Cognizant of this fact, Ethiopia is now implementing Agricultural Development-Led Industrialization (ADLI) strategy which concentrates on accelerating growth through disseminating better performing crop and livestock technologies to farm households. Differences on how quickly producers adopt such technologies can be explained by differences in human capital and differences in knowledge of the new technology. Having this idea in mind, a field survey was conducted in one of the resource poor areas of north wollo (Meket Woreda) to identify the factors that influence the use of improved crop technologies and ownership of livestock particularly cow and sheep among farmers in the woreda. This being the general aim of the Study, the chief objective was to see the impact of human capital variables on the adoption of these technologies. To this end, the probit model was fitted on primary cross sectional data collected from 144 farm households. An attempt is also made to see whether or not crop technologies are profitable or not by calculating the so called value cost ratio. The result obtained from the estimated models showed that the education level of household head, family size, participation in agricultural training programs and farm income significantly affect the adoption of fertilizer and/or improved seeds (Crop technologies). On the other hand, cow ownership is found to be influenced by total cultivated land, farm income and access to livestock credit. Similarly, sheep ownership is influenced by total cultivated land, age of household head, distance from main road and agro-climatic condition. The calculated value cost ratio indicated that income from barley production can be tripled if farmers apply the recommended rate of fertilizer on a hectar of land sawn with local variety of barley. Similarly, wheat production can be doubled if improved seed is mixed with fertilizer. Policies recommended from the findings of the study include infrastructual development dealing with education, strengthening agricultural training programmes and research activities and provision of livestock credit particularly to resource poor farmers. It is hoped that, such types of government action would improve agricultural production of the country in general and of the study area in particular.
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    Impact of Adoption of Soil Bund on Grain Production: The Case of Kilie Water Shed Area, Lume Woreda Ethiopia
    (A.A.U, 2007-07) Sefere, Yohannes; Demeke, Mulat (Dr)
    This study is undertaken in Kilie watershed area found in Lume woreda, Oromia Regional State. The paper focused on analyzing the factors that influence the adoption of soil bund on grain production using cross-sectional data collected in 2007 on randomly selected 141 households having 520 plots. The data included in the analysis comprises both socio-economic factors at household level and biophysical variables atfarm plot level. Probity and impact evaluation econometric models were used to determine the factors affecting the adoption decision behavior of the farm household and the impact of adoption on grain production respectively. The result of the probit model showed that sex of the household head, farming experience, training on soil and water conservation practices, land size, plot slope, labour-land ratio, size of livestock, person-land ratio and distance of plot from residence found to be significant. In the second model, the regression analysis was run by classifying the crops grown by the farmers into three categories: for the whole crops, for the main crop (tejj) and other crops (excluding teff). The result indicated that in all of the three cases the impact of adoption of soil bund on crop production has positive sign, however, it was significant (at 5% level of significance) only for teff. In the case of whole crops and other crops, the variable soil and water conservation practice is not significantly different from zero. The other variables that have significant influence on the value of crop production include: sex of the household's head and the major factors of production (fertilizer, land size, family labor and draught power). Two main policy implications can be emerged from the study. To expand the adoption of the conservation practice the government should strengthen the program in the area. To encourage the probability of adoption and intensity of use, research on improved soil and water conservation techniques should play attention to the provision of tangible short term benefits. The second is to stimulate the adoption of soil and water conservation practices farmers should be provided with short term training. The training will help them to use the technology effectively and in sustainable way.
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    Measuring and Assessing Distortions in Coffee Commodity System: The Case of Jimma, Ethiopia
    (A.A.U, 1997-06) Yadeta, Taye; Demeke, Mulat (Dr)
    The main objective of this study is to measure and assess distortions in coffee commodity system. To meet this end, both cross-sectional and time series data were collected and analyzed. Both dynamic and static analysis indicated that there have been some distortions in coffee commodity system which inhibit coffee producers from maximizing profit from coffee production. The time series analysis revealed that although there is a tendency for farmgate prices to move toward its border prices, the speed of adjustment is very low. High share of coffee in agricultural GDP contributed to this slow adjustment rate by inviting extensive government intervention into the sector. on the other hand overvaluation of the exchange rate and high share of coffee in total export adversely affected the short run transmission of the border price to farmgate price and long run rate of price protection respectively. PAM as a method of quantifying distortions and their effects on private and social profitability uncovered that coffee producers were making a meagre profit in 1988189 while exporters were receiving high profit. These situations were reversed in 1995196 owing to the policy reform. Coffee farmers have responded to the increased price (coffee) by planting more coffee, more use of hired labour etc. on the other hand devaluation and removal of subsidies caused the price of imported inputs to increase to unaffordable level. As the result farmers stopped spraying against CBD which might be the cause for insignificant coffee yield difference between the periods before and after there form . land, labour, extension services. and education were investigated to be the important determinants of coffee production in our study area. As to the allocation of these inputs are concerned the farmers of the study area have allocated their land efficiently while labor was not. Shortage of labor and risk aversion behavior of the farmers may result in sub-optimal use this input. Lastly based on the empirical result of the study , we recommend that the government should make a necessary effort to reduce direct tax from coffee, diversify export, reduce cost of fungicides, improve labor market and give premium for good quality coffee.
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    The Micro and Macroeconomic Determinants of Private Investment in the Manufacturing Sector in Kenya
    (A.A.U, 2000-06) Kamau, Timothy; Demeke, Mulat (Dr)
    Kenya continues to record low levels of growth in private investment. This is despite the new paradigm that recognizes market mechanism and private enterprise as more efficient in generating the economic dynamism that leads to growth. This study set out to find the macro and micro economic factors that affect investment particularly in the manufacturing sector in Kenya. Econometric techniques of time series and also a survey were employed to analyze this phenomenon. High on the list of the macroeconomic factors negatively determining private investment is the high and unstable interest rates, increasing public debt, dilapidated infrastructure, insufficient expenditure on education development, low levels of credit to the private sector, the low level of GOP and generally, a harsh macroeconomic environment. These factors not only affect the manufacturers but also the Agriculture and the Service sectors. On the micro level, the macro factors also playa role coupled with other numerous socio-political and economic factors e.g. insecurity, corruption and contraband trade. If Kenya is to rid herself from the current economic quagmire and achieve her stated goal of becoming a Newly Industrialized Country (NIC) by the year 2020, then it needs to borrow a leaf from the "Asian Tigers" and tackle these issues urgently.
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    The Productivity & Profitability of Wheat and Teff Technologies in Selected Villages of Ethiopia
    (A.A.U, 2001-06) Tefera, Nigussie; Demeke, Mulat (Dr)
    This study examines the productivity and profitability of teff and wheat technologies in selected villages of Ethiopia, namely sribana-Goderi, Eteya, Shashemene and Yetmen using Cobb- Dauglass production function model. The paper indicated improved seed varieties, recommended rate of DAP and Urea, farming management (practices) and environmental factors have a significant positive impact on productivity. In addition, land under new extension system resulted in better yield responses than farmers' practices. The study showed that most farmers did not use improved seed varieties and recommended rate of Urea and DAP which enhance productivity and profitability. High costs of improved seeds and fertilizer, lack of money for down payment, lack of credit and loans etc were reasoned out as the major one. the paper also established that the existing technology package was profitable if land cost was not considered. If land cost was included most of the farmers earned profit less than the market wage rate except Sirbana-Godeti farmers. Thus, hiring-out labor is more preferable than renting-in for landless farmers. This paper concluded that emphasis should be directed towards the transformation of the agricultural sector through application of more productive technologies. agricultural development Unit (CADU, later called Arssi regional development unit, ARDU). It was established in 1967 through a cooperation agreement between Ethiopian government and the swedish international development authority (SIDA). The second was the Wellamo Agricultural Development Unit (WADU) that was .established in 1970 through World Bank assistance. WADU was followed by the Ada district development Project (ADDP), which began operation in 1972 and was assisted by United States Agency for International development (US AID). however, the experience gained from CADU' and to some extent from WADU as early as 1970 proved that the intensive package programs were too costly in terms of manpower and financial resources for large-scale expansion. An alternative strategy, more commensurate with the resources of the nation, had to be Oesigned. This alternative strategy was called the Minimum Package Project (MPP) and was launched in 1971 with technical assistance from SIDA. The MPP was designed to reach a large number of farmers with few "proven" innovations that have been developed or tested by intensive package projects and/or agricultural research institutes of the nation. The proven innovations essentially consisted of fertilizer, improved varieties of cereals, and the accompanying cultural practices i.e. method and rate of application of fertilizer, sowing rate and sowing dates of the improved varieties of seeds. The approach employed in MPP was supposed to be less costly on per farmer bases than CADD, WADU, or ADDP. But evaluation of the project proved that its objectives was not achieved since the expansion of commercial farming seriously constrained the impact of the projects on smallholders agriculture [Mulat, 1989; Dejene 1999].
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    Relationship between Poverty and Fertility the Case of Households of Ethiopia
    (A.A.U, 2008-06) Fitamo, Temsgen; Demeke, Mulat (Dr)
    In this study the nature and degree of the bi-causality relationship between poverty and fertility is explained. The study used data from demographic and health survey of Ethiopia of the year 2005. Poisson regression approach for multivariate analysis of fertility was employed. Fertility is analyzed by considering the number of children born to a woman with in her life time, and "asset index" was constructed from ownership of durables and housing characteristics as proxy for economic status.!t was found that fertility and poverty have different relations in urban and rural areas. Strong positive relation is observed in urban areas. But it was found that poverty shows J curve causality onto fertility. Fertility is negatively related with both low income and high income levels of household; however it shows strong positive relation with middle income households. Education, age at first marriage of female, employment and contraceptives have a strong reducing impact on fertility. In addition education plays a significant role in curbing poverty by increasing the productiveness, employment opportunity and empowering women. To alleviate high fertility and poverty, one can follow to routes. First, by reducing poverty incidence through better access to education and thus employment opportunity, we can address high fertility through improved accesses for education, as it increases opportunity cost of child bearing, delay marriage, and increases awareness contraceptive usage The second way is, directly targeting high fertility through family planning to reduce poverty in Cadence. Balanced economic growth and population growth will help government to provide nations with better social service and to produce more productive generation through provision of education, better employment opportunity and improved health care service. It needs policy intervention to expand education and family planning programs with better contraceptive access to low income women in both rural and urban areas. Attention should also be given to ways of reducing social factors which encourage early marriage so as to improve the social and economic power of women.
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    Technical Efficiency and Determinants of Food Production in the Highlands of Ethiopia
    (A.A.U, 1998-06) Feleke, Wendwosen; Demeke, Mulat (Dr)
    The main objective of this study is to identify major factors and constraints that determine crop production and estimate the technical efficiency of smallholders in the highlands of Ethiopia. Using cross-sectional data collected from 1660 households, this study has attempted to estimate the stochastic frontier Cobb-Douglas production fiction, and it examines the determinants of food production. Most of the coefficients of the variables included in the production function (except that of credit and rainfall) are statistically significant and have the correct sign as expected. The result, suggests that the major determinants of food production in the Ethiopian highlands are the traditional inputs, namely oxen, land and labor (family and hired). Furthermore, education level and age of household heads that are expected to proxy management and experience have exhibited positive and significant relationship with output. The findings of the study have also indicated that there is a significant amount of technical inefficiency among private farmers. The mean technical efficiency of the households covered in this study is estimated to be 0.45. This implies that, it is possible to attain a maximum of 55% increase in output by improving the efficiency of private farmers. A comparison of technical efficiency of households, led by educated and uneducated, holders have disclosed that the impact of education on the productivity of farmers is stronger at a higher level of education than lower level. Based on the findings of this study policy emphasis on education, extension service, land quality improvement and increasing the availability of oxen etc. are recommended.