Browsing by Author "Biruk Gebretsadik"

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    Sustainable Crop Production in Ethiopia: a System Dynamics Approach
    (A.A.U, 2023-06-05) Biruk Gebretsadik; Zerayehu Sime (PhD)
    This study discusses how to transform the current crop production system in Ethiopia into a sustainable way of production. Since the current production system poses a danger to the environment and failed to meet the food demand of the growing population, the issue of sustainability arose. To solve the underlying socioeconomic problem of the sector, a holistic and integrated approach is needed. To do this a system dynamics approach is selected. A stock-flow diagram is built to capture the dynamic interaction that exists among social, economic, and environmental aspects of crop production. The model proved its robustness using various model validation tests. Land acidity as well as post-harvest loss, and loss due to incidence of pests and diseases are identified as a major bottleneck of the sector. To determine the leverage point at which the sector becomes sustainable, four scenarios were tested: increasing the share of improved seed relative to local seed; switching from inorganic to organic fertilizer; increasing irrigation area; and expanding agricultural extension services. According to the findings, increasing the use of improved seed and organic fertilizer has a significant potential to promote economic efficiency, social welfare, and environmental sustainability. The simulation's outcome demonstrates that using improved seeds increases productivity and decreases the prevalence of pests and diseases, leading to high crop yields and reduces undernourishment. Furthermore, extensive use of improved seed reduces the need to extend cultivated areas by clearing forests. In addition to increasing productivity, the use of organic fertilizer can lower the amount of greenhouse gases and acidity in the soil that can result from the use of chemical fertilizers. To address the demand for more cultivated land without causing more deforestation, extending irrigation areas was found an effective way to maintain the current level of forest cover. Increasing agricultural extension services reduces reducing post-harvest loss and increases crop production.