Browsing by Author "Birhanu Girma Abebe"

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    An Economic Menace or Growth Opportunity of Land Speculation: The case of Shashemene City
    (Addis Ababa University, 2020-11-01) Bedane Shata Gemeda; Birhanu Girma Abebe
    Land speculation in urban and periurban area can be extremely strenuous to the upheld intensification of cities, which is critical to economic development. Inaccurately, speculative land investors, worried about benefits from exchanging landed possessions, can influence urban development supporting populace, where the principle is often inadequately controlled and exceptionally bureaucratic. The key troubles of governing land speculation are rapidly deeming hot spot zones of eagerness, naming land jobbers, and directing encouraging and negative spats of property speculation. The research employed the case study, desk review, and survey research stratagem. Also, multiple regressions, Cumulative Sum statistics, and the Principal Component Analysis systems were used to scrutinize facts. The MORRIS and TOPISS models were also used to rate the space-based expansion of the city. Next to the case study folklore, a mix of various facts collection tools, for instance, questionnaires, Focus Group Discussions, key informant interviews, and direct field observation, were exploited to collect study truths as of the case study district. The Shashemene city admin was intentionally chosen while the case study area in the first stage of the case study district choice procedure. Four urban villages, explicitly: Awasho, Alelu, Burka Gudina, and Buclhena, were chosen in the next stage. Further, policy documents were reviewed, and a survey was conducted to get adequate data. The result indicates that the land worth is assenting and expansively allied with the size of property seizing by regional land jobbers. According to influential variable estimate, one birr m2 swell of land price would prompt local speculators to hoard 39.7𝑚2 more land per year. Land conjecture, which raises land worth 13 times its opportunity outlay - raised societal expenditures by 5.6% to 11.3%. Local GDP turn down by 33%, district revenue lifted by 15.1%, and unfair distribution of the middling property increment worth ratio for farmers (1.8%), local governments (19%), and builders (79.2%) correspondingly. The subsequent three tips are recommended to control land speculation: (1) one-personnel-single-plot law, (2) property value tax and (3) land development time limitations. Keywords: Land speculation, property rights, land rent, opportunity cost, Ethiopia
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    Analysis of Land Use /Land Cover Dynamics In Relation to Urban Expansion: The Case of Hawassa City, Ethiopia
    (Addis Ababa University, 2025-04-01) Mefekir Woldegebriel Tessema; Birhanu Girma Abebe
    Land Use and Land Cover Changes (LULC) are some of the worldwide factors that have the most impact on city growth. This study examines land use and land cover changes in relation to urban expansion in Hawassa City. The objectives of the study include quantifying land use and land cover changes over three decades, examining public perception on urban green infrastructure and land use management, physical and socio-economic driving forces of land use and land cover change, and identifying challenges of urban land management. The data were collected through questionnaires, interviews, and key interviews. Finally, the data were analyzed in different ways, using figures and tables, for example. Descriptive and econometric models were also used to analyze the data and probit regression models were used to investigate the impact of urban expansion on the livelihood of displaced farmers in the surrounding area. The study used multi-spectral satellite images from 1990 and 2020, and employed packages like QGIS version 3.2, ArcGIS 10.3, ENVI 4.2, and ERDAS Imagine 2013 for image classification. Descriptive and econometric analyses were used to analyze both quantitative and qualitative data using SPSS version 25. Multivariate analysis of variance indicated that the effect of urban expansion on the combined dependent variables, namely, on land use, socioeconomic activities, culture, and environmental change, is statistically significant F(8, 616) =12.704, p = 0.000, Wilk’s Lambda (λ) = .737, partial eta squared(partial η2) = 0.142, observed power = 1.000. Comparatively, the area covered by farmland, built-up areas, and bushland increased from 19.46% to 26.51%, 11.97% to 18.71%, and 3.07% to 4.51%, respectively. Hawassa City has developed very rapidly, growing from a surface coverage of 4.98 km2 in the 1983s to built-up area coverage of around 48.29 km2 in 2018. The mean score for the level of social relationship and values after land expropriation was 1.7 moderate, with a standard deviation of 0.852 in comparison with the mean score for the level of social relationship and values before land expropriation, which was 3.21 high, with a standard deviation of 0.79. There isn’t much of a difference between them in the second category, where the lease price was increased from the starting price by (457%) from 2015 to 2016. The f-statics or f-ratio were 91.656 and the sign value of highly significant as (p=.000 Keywords: Change detection, Green Infrastructure, Land Use/ Land Cover, Informal Settlement, Probit model, Urban Expansion.
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    Environmental Monitoring and Assessment Climate change-induced variations in future extreme precipitation intensity-durationfrequency in flood-prone city of Adama, central Ethiopia
    (Springer Nature, 2021-11-01) Dejene Tesema Bulti; Birhanu Girma Abebe; Zelalem Biru
    The influences of climate change on the features of extreme rainfall events have become unprecedented that needs improved understanding at all levels for planning effective management strategies of the potential risks. This study aims to assess the potential influences of climate change on extreme rainfall characteristics in floodvulnerable city of Adama. For this, daily precipitation records of 1967-2016 and projection of global circulation models (GCMs): CanESM2 and HadCM3 for 2021-2070 were disaggregated into shorter time resolutions using the Hyetos model. Gumbel Type I probability distribution and power-regression model ( [[EQUATION]] were used for deducing intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) curves and for describing their functions, respectively. The extreme rainfall intensity of the historical and future periods for a range of storm durations and return periods were compared and contrasted. A close agreement is obtained between the observed and the modeled rainfall intensity with high values of coefficient of determination (> 0.996) and Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (> 0.850). Besides, statistically significant (p<0.05) direct linear relationship is found between the return periods and the coefficient parameter of the IDF models. Moreover, the intensity of extreme precipitation over 2021-2070 in Adama city would increase up to 49.5%, depending on storm duration and return period considered. This could have consequences of the way the city’s drainage infrastructures are designed, operated and sustained. Hence, flood-prone areas should be recognized in order to formulate effective strategies for mitigation and adaption of potential impacts. The standards for designing future drainage infrastructures should also be updated aiming to reflect the effects of climatic change The standards for designing future drainage infrastructures should also be updated aiming to reflect the effects of climatic change.
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    Informal Settlements and their Impacts on Urban Land Use Planning in Burayu City, Ethiopia
    (Addis Ababa University, 2024-12-01) Tefera Beyera Bayuma; Birhanu Girma Abebe
    Informal settlement is one mode of urbanization in developing countries, through which shelter is provided in urban areas such as Burayu City. However, informal settlements continue to create challenges for planned development. The purpose of this study was to analyze informal settlements and their impacts on urban land use planning in Burayu city. This study utilized a case study research design with a combination of quantitative and qualitative research approaches with a range of primary and secondary data sources. Simple random sampling was used to select informal households for the questionnaire survey, while purposive and snowballing sampling was used to select respondents for focus group discussions and key informant interviews. The study also benefited from field observations and documentary reviews. Descriptive statistics and factor analysis were used to determine the satisfaction level, while a Generalized Linear Model was used to analyze predictors of residential satisfaction in terms of the socio-economic and demographic features of the respondents. In the process and factors of informal settlement, qualitative data were analyzed using content analysis, whereas quantitative data were analyzed by descriptive statistics. The interaction among actors was analyzed by social network analysis. Finally, the impact of informal residential use and its conformance with urban land use planning were analyzed based on the conformance analysis method using GIS. The study found that the majority of the residents (54%) were satisfied with their residential areas, as indicated by the positive sustainability indicators. Marital status and occupational type emerged as the main predictors of residential satisfaction. The findings of the study revealed that informal institutions play a decisive support in informal settlement expansion which is reinforced by social networks. The study identified speculation, rural-urban migration, lack of good governance and locational choice as triggering causes for informal settlement development. Moreover, actors use formal institutional ambiguities to participate in informal buildings. Land brokers are the principal actors who play very significant roles in informal land transactions. Furthermore, the findings revealed that 81% of the informal houses occupied more than 140 m2 which is greater than the set standard. The research also found that 69.10% of informal residential land use types iii adhere to the land use plan. In conclusion, the findings of the study indicated that understanding informal settlers' needs, actor interaction networks behaviors and conformance interpretation of informal settlement would not only help to solve this puzzle but would also illuminate the factors driving informal urban expansion. This provides insights for controlling informal development and ameliorating land governance. Key worlds: Burayu City, Conformance, Informal actors, Informal settlement, Land use plan, Residential satisfaction.
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    The Role of Migration in Driving Urban Horizontal Expansion: The Case of Woldia Town, North Wollo Zone, Amhara Region, Ethiopia
    (Addis Ababa University, 2025-05-01) Mulu Fasigo Fente; Birhanu Girma Abebe
    Ethiopia is still one of the least urbanized nations in the world, despite the fact that many of its urban areas including Woldia, are expanding quickly. Due to its rapid horizontal expansion, Woldia has recently encountered major urban challenges. A significant problem linked to this expansion is the growing demand for urban land and space, which is primarily caused by migration-related population pressure. The annexation of agricultural land at the rural periphery as a result of this migration has further contributed the town's horizontal growth. Development in both rural and urban areas is impacted by migration. This has been significant challenges to Ethiopia's development in general and Woldia's urban growth in particular in recent years. The study aims to identify the main drivers and effects of migration, as well as the contribution of remittances to the horizontal growth of Woldia, and evaluates the trends of land use and land cover changes of the town from 2000 to 2020. To achieve the study's objectives, information was gathered from a randomly selected sample of 395 respondents using questionnaires. Besides, interviews, focus group discussions, personal observation, and GIS tools were employed. Secondary data sources were also used and both qualitative and quantitative analyses were employed. Apart from the utilization of percentages, tables, and averages, the discussion was enhanced by the use of diagrams and photographs. The results show that the main driving forces behind migration are inadequate social services and poverty in the places of origin of migrants. On the other hand, the primary pull factors are better social infrastructure and employment prospects at the destination. As a result, peri-urban areas where housing supply and accessibility are still limited are under a lot of strain due to the migration inflow. Additionally, the findings indicated a disparity in socio-economic development between rural and urban areas. The result showed that there was remittance driven spatial growth at the periphery. Additionally, the LULCC findings showed that migration-driven population growth alters the town's land use patterns with a decrease in agricultural, forest, and barren lands, and an increase in built-up areas which has a significant impact on the prime agricultural land nearby. As a result, migration has driven the town's horizontal expansion in the peri-urban areas by increasing its population which consequently creates more space for various socio-economic developments. It is remarked that without a workable and suitable policy solution in place, the town's horizontal expansion cannot be reversed in the future. Therefore, planners and policymakers at the local, regional, and national levels must have a thorough understanding of the dynamics of the growth occurring in order to effectively support migrants. Furthermore, in the context of fast urban population growth, effective urban expansion planning should be employed to build inclusive, productive and orderly urban areas by allowing space for additional urban inhabitants at the appropriate scale in places where migrants are likely to dwell. Key Words: Driving, Horizontal Expansion, Migration, Remittance, Woldia