Browsing by Author "Asrat Arke"

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    Network analysis and mapping of small ruminant trade in Somali region and Borena zone, Ethiopia: Implication for potential spread and control of Peste Des Petits Ruminants Virus
    (Addis Ababa University, 2024) Asrat Arke; Dr. Haileleul Negussie; Dr. Samson Leta
    Livestock movement through trade is central driving factor for the spread of trans-boundary animal diseases (TADs) including Peste des petits ruminant virus (PPRV) since pathogens can spread long distance via movement of infected animal. Hence, understanding animal trade network structure is fundamental step for surveillance and to implement effective animal disease control measures. This study aims to characterize small ruminant trade network patterns in the Borena Zone and Somali region by using social network analysis (SNA) approach. Additionally, the study seeks to assess the potential role of trade network structure in the risk of PPRV diffusion and control. Small ruminant market movement data including source, destination and volume of exchange was recorded from January to December, 2023 in selected eight markets in Borena Zone and Somali region. A total of 365,261 individual animals (sheep and goats) were traded through 64 identified markets and 20 non-market premises including abattoirs and cross-border destinations. The whole small ruminant trade network was sparsely connected (Density = 2.4%), and showed small-world network topology, with high clustering coefficient (CC= 0.73), and short path length and diameter (PL = 2.21, diameter =5). Degree-distribution of markets in network was right skewed and disassortatively mixed (assortativity = -0.517). Centrality-based percolation analysis showed remarkably faster reduction in connected components size than random removal of markets. Analysis of threshold parameter showed average epidemic threshold (q = 0.392) and Basic Reproduction Number (R0 = 2.75), with maximum risk at August (q =0.199, R0= 5). This study highlighted that; the whole small ruminant trade network in study areas was prone to the spread of PPRV due to the low epidemic threshold, the short diameter of the network and the presence of hub markets which can act as super-receivers and/or super-spreaders. Additionally, over 90% of the animals traded through the current small ruminant trade network came from PPR endemic and high-risk areas. Therefore, targeting those highly connected markets and nearby areas as sentinel during epidemiological surveillance could provide opportunities for early detection of threats enhance preparedness rapid response and minimize cost.