Browsing by Author "Adane, Habtamu"

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    Developing a Forecasting Model for Cereal, Coffee, Pulses and Oil Seeds: Box-jenkins Approach
    (A.A.U, 2010-06) Adane, Habtamu; Geda, Alemayehu ( Dr )
    This study tries to identify the macro forecasting gap created between Ethiopian government and Some international organizations like IMF. The former uses informal methods (un ojficialized) and the later uses model based forecasting methods growth oriented financial programing model to predict rate of growth The other(major) concern of the study was in developing a forecasting model for cereal, coffee, pulses and oilseeds using Box-Jenkins (univariate ARJMA) methodology. Following the four procedures of identification, estimation, diagnostic checking and forecasting, we get ARIMA (2,1 , 2), ARIMA(2, 1,4), ARIMA(O,1,4) and ARIMA(O, 1,4) as the data congruent forecasting models for cereal, coffee, pulses and oiLseeds respectively.