Energy Technology

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Browsing Energy Technology by Author "Abdulaziz Nuredin"

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    Impact of Electric Vehicle Evolution on Energy System and Its Emission Reduction
    (Addis Ababa University, 2026-06) Abdulaziz Nuredin; Fitsum Salehu
    Ethiopia has adopted ambitious electric mobility policies, including fiscal incentives for electric vehicles (EVs) and a ban on the import of internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles. While these measures position transport electrification as a central pillar of the country’s Climate-Resilient Green Economy strategy, their long-term implications for electricity demand, power system investment, emissions mitigation, and economy performance remain insufficiently quantified. Existing studies largely assess transport electrification on grid stress and limited long term energy planning, EVs transition emission mitigation separately from national climate commitment targets, assuming homogeneous vehicles in transport energy modelling, and limited integration of transport demand growth with EVs diffusion. This study address this gaps by developing one of first Ethiopian–specific integrated transport-energy system model to evaluate impact of electric vehicle (EV) evolution on energy system from 2025 to 2050. Its novelty lies in embedding EV diffusion within fleet growth, power system expansion, and climate mitigation objective within unified analytical framework, to assess energy, environmental, investment and economic outcomes. The analysis combines transport demand growth with a Gompertz-based vehicle ownership model, policy-based logistic EVs diffusion model, and the Open Source Energy Modeling System (OSeMOSYS) to represent electricity demand for heterogeneous vehicle segment, technology-specific energy consumption and GHG emission, and long-term power system expansion. Three EVs adoption scenarios are examined in addition to businesses as usual (BAU): Moderate Transition, Ambitious National Target and Net-Zero Mobility by embedding them within a baseline entire economy demand. A key assumption underpinning the analysis is that transport demand continue to expand under rapid population growth and urbanizations, requiring de-carbonization to occur alongside with the increasing mobility rather than through demand saturation. The results indicates that in ambitious and net-zero scenarios transport electrification reduces transport energy demand and emission substantially with larger economic outcome, despite the rapidly increasing electricity demand after 2035. Under net-zero electrification cumulative energy saving reaches 239TWh, while demanding additional capacity expansion of 25GW from the baseline case of 150 GW for entire economy by 2050, whereas the baseline case emission declined by 65%. Even though significant emission mitigation is observed with rate of EVs adoption in all scenarios, with 95% electricity supply from renewables, transport electrification alone is insufficient to meet national NDC target by 2035. The economic return in net-zero scenario saves $44 billion through reduced fuel imported and lower EVs maintenance costs, which can partially offsets the investment requirement for electricity generation of $64 billion by 2050. The findings indicate that transport electrification represents a strategic pathway for enhancing energy security, reducing fuel import dependence, and advancing Ethiopia’s long-term climate goal. The results provide a quantitative evidence base for policymakers in setting realistic EV adoption targets, aligning transport policies with power sector expansion plans, and prioritizing investments in electricity generation and charging infrastructure. The analysis highlights that achieving national climate objectives requires coordinated action across the transport, energy, industry, and land-use sectors. These insights can support policymakers in designing integrated, cost-effective, and climate-aligned development strategies that maximize the economic and environmental benefits of Ethiopia’s electric mobility transition.