Applied Economic Modeling And Forecasting (Fiscal Policy Analysis And Planning)

Permanent URI for this collection

http://etd.aau.edu.et/handle/12345678/171

Browse

Browsing Applied Economic Modeling And Forecasting (Fiscal Policy Analysis And Planning) by Author "Guta, Fantu (PhD)"

Now showing 1 - 2 of 2
  • No Thumbnail Available
    Item
    The Financial Determinants of Private Sector Investment: The Case of Ethiopia
    (Addis Ababa University, 2016-06) Teklay, Brhane; Guta, Fantu (PhD)
    This study mainly emphasized on the financial determinants of private sector investment in Ethiopia using annual time series data from1975-2015. Using Johansen co integration test they have a significant relationship among variables and OLS regression analysis was undertake to estimate long run model and ECM has been used to find out the short run dynamics. In both long run and short run model the financial determinants variable like broad money supply, bank credit and availability of foreign exchange were positive relation with the private investment. The other macro variable taken was the capital expenditure, which is negatively affect in the long run and positively affect private investment in the short run. The researchers conclude based on past literature result’s capital expenditure is positively association with private investment. The short run dynamics of estimated coefficient ECM which suggests a relatively quick speed of adjustment back to the long-run equilibrium. The findings of the study provide evidence that private investment in Ethiopia, like in other developing countries is affected by important financial and macroeconomic variables. The empirical evidence however has certain important policy implications, and in view of that recommendations have also been provided, in an attempt to help increase and stimulate private investment in Ethiopia. Key words: Ethiopia, private investment, financially determinants, Johannes co-integration.
  • No Thumbnail Available
    Item
    The Nexuses between Tax Revenue, Inflation, Private Final Consumption and Economic Growth in Ethiopia
    (Addis Ababa University, 2016-06) Handamo, Firehiywot; Guta, Fantu (PhD)
    The study aims at understanding the nexus between tax revenue, private final consumption, inflation and economic growth in Ethiopia. To achieve this objective co-integrated VAR approach was employed. The estimated models enable to understand the long run and short run relationship of the variables for the period 1970–2015 in Ethiopia. The study have the following major findings: First, Real GDP exert negative and significant effect on real tax revenue in the long run while the impact of the real private final consumption is positive and insignificant in the long run. Second, there is a strong evidence that inflation exert negative impact on real tax revenue. Third, there is evidence of bi-directional causality between real tax revenue, inflation, real private final consumption and real GDP. Fifth, the impulse response function indicates that the variables are at fast movement towards long run time path. The overall findings of the study underlined given the long run negative impact of RGDP on real tax revenue, it will be natural to think of different reforms. Here, Inferences drawn will have implications for all stakeholders in the economy and are particularly useful for fiscal policy makers of the country.