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Demand for Electricity in Ethiopia as Related to Consumption, Population and Gross Domestic Product

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dc.contributor.advisor Sharma, M.K.(PhD)
dc.contributor.author Abera, Samuel
dc.date.accessioned 2018-07-06T06:35:30Z
dc.date.available 2018-07-06T06:35:30Z
dc.date.issued 2007-11
dc.identifier.uri http://etd.aau.edu.et/handle/123456789/6811
dc.description.abstract Multivariate time series (MVTS) models are helpful to examine the relationships among many macroeconomic variables of a country. They give us information about the effect of time on some variables and the effect of one variable on another at the same time. The main objective of this study is to develop a MVTS model which can be used to describe and forecast demand (DMD) and consumption (CON) of electricity, population size (POP), and gross domestic product (GDP) of Ethiopia simultaneously based on forty one years national time series data. Different vector autoregressive (VAR) and vector error correction (VEC) models are applied to the data together with unit root test for stationarity and Johansen test for cointegration. Unit root test reveals that all the series are not stationary and the possibility of expressing all the variables using two cointegration equations is proved by cointegration analysis. The final result shows that a VEC model of lag one with two cointegration equations best fits the data among various statistical model selection criteria perspective. The accuracy of forecasts using this model is found to be high with mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) less than 5%. The forecasting ability of one variable as compared to another was verified by Granger causality tests. Short-tem and long-term interpretations from the VEC model were also given for the different effects among variables under study. en_US
dc.language.iso en en_US
dc.publisher Addis Ababa University en_US
dc.subject Demand for Electricity en_US
dc.subject in Ethiopia as Related en_US
dc.title Demand for Electricity in Ethiopia as Related to Consumption, Population and Gross Domestic Product en_US
dc.type Thesis en_US

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