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Assessment of The Reliability of The Traffic Forecast and Its Impact on Pavement Design and Service Life” (A Case Study Three Ethiopian Road)

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dc.contributor.advisor Bekila, Tekelu
dc.contributor.author Mihiret, Tesfaye
dc.date.accessioned 2020-12-31T06:14:08Z
dc.date.available 2020-12-31T06:14:08Z
dc.date.issued 2020-08
dc.identifier.uri http://etd.aau.edu.et/handle/123456789/24416
dc.description.abstract Unrealistic or incomplete estimates of traffic characteristics during design process will affect determination of pavement type, performance of the pavement structures for the design life as well as construction and maintenance cost. Thus, accurate estimation of traffic loading is needed for a better design of pavement structures, easy of construction and maintenance as well as cost effective. Three road projects here selected for this study, the one Shashemene-Dodola pavement design which is overestimated future traffic and result high capital cost of construction (increase use of construction materials, resources). The other two projects Alemgena-Butajira and Debrebrihan-Karakore pavement design are underestimated future traffic and it pre-matured pavement failure which results a high capital cost of maintenance and increases vehicle operation cost. This study assesses the existing practice of traffic forecasting for pavement design and recommend potential improvements of procedures. This process and its results have been coordinated in order to be incorporated in traffic volume estimation. Two traffic growth rate estimation method is adopted i.e, Regression and Elasticity Analysis from traffic counts and for determination of forecasted traffic volume. The study result indicates, the change between actual traffic volume which is counted during the road service time by Ethiopian Roads Authority and traffic volume estimation of using the above methods is within 0% to 4% whereas, the change between actual traffic and design traffic is -87% to 51%. From the result of calculated cumulative standard axel load and determining traffic class of the pavement, analyzing the difference in traffic class of the design traffic and study traffic is carried out. Finally determining the impact of inaccurate traffic volume and loading estimation on pavement performance and analyses additional cost of construction and maintenance due to inaccurate traffic volume estimation. en_US
dc.language.iso en_US en_US
dc.publisher Addis Ababa University en_US
dc.subject Traffic Forecast en_US
dc.subject Pavement Design en_US
dc.subject Service Life en_US
dc.subject Ethiopian Road en_US
dc.title Assessment of The Reliability of The Traffic Forecast and Its Impact on Pavement Design and Service Life” (A Case Study Three Ethiopian Road) en_US
dc.type Thesis en_US

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