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Modeling the Potential Impacts of the Projected Climate Change on Enset (Ensete Ventricosum(Welw.)Cheesman) Productivity and Distribution in Selected Areas of the Snnpr, Ethiopia

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dc.contributor.advisor Argaw, Mekuria (Professer)
dc.contributor.author Milkias, Misgana
dc.date.accessioned 2019-10-09T11:11:50Z
dc.date.available 2019-10-09T11:11:50Z
dc.date.issued 2018-06-04
dc.identifier.uri http://localhost:80/xmlui/handle/123456789/19352
dc.description.abstract Future climate change is expected to have a greater and global impact on people’s lives. The Agricultural sector is among the most challenged by the impacts of climate change. Although Enset is among the climate resilient crops in the short term, it will be suffer from the long term impacts. This study was aimed at investigating the possible and anticipated impacts of climate change and variability on productivity and distribution. The study used historical observed climate data of the last three decades, enset yields data of the last one decade and model simulated climate data of the next ten decades. For the suitability analysis, worldclim climate data was downloaded. In order to detect climate variability and change signals, the observed seasonal and annual climate data were subjected to empirical analyses. To determine baseline climate anomaly. Annual rainfall of the study area during the study period was 670.77mm with 147.09mm standard deviation and 22% CV. SPI analysis revealed that the years 1984 and 2003 were drought years, and 1980, 1982 and 2002 were moderately dry years in the study area. Mann-kendall test revealed that only summer season rainfall showed decreasing amount of rainfall but in other seasons and inter-annual time scale rainfall show increasing but statistically insignificant trends. A linear regression model revealed that 0.039O, 0.051O and 0.045OC in annual time scale of minimum, maximum and mean temperature anomaly during last three decades, respectively. Statistically significant positive trend was detected for temperature. Future climate projections were generated with the statistical technique of downscaling (SDSM) and under different climate change scenarios. Simulations within the horizons 2040s and 2070s showed a situation of an overall increase in temperatures that reaches 1.1, 1.2 and 1.2°C under RCP (2.6, 4.5 and 8.5) during 2040s and 1.2, 1.2 and 1.4°C under RCP (2.6, 4.5 and 8.5) scenarios during 2070s, respectively and a respective increase in rainfall of 29%, 28% and 27% under RCP (2.6, 4.5 and 8.5) during 2040s and 27%, 26% and 25% under RCP (2.6, 4.5 and 8.5) scenarios during 2070s, respectively. Correlation and regression analysis observed significant linkages in variations of current enset yields and climate variability, especially with respect to temperature and rainfall trends. The effect of climate on enset yields was observed to vary from one area to other over study area. Then EcoCrop model undertaken to projected high climatic suitability up to 76% under RCP2.6 scenario during 2050s and least suitability 42% obtained under RCP8.5 scenario during 2070s in enset production over study area. Therefore, the projected climate show that the climate change and variability will have significant impacts on enset production. en_US
dc.language.iso en en_US
dc.publisher Addis Ababa University en_US
dc.subject Projection en_US
dc.subject Climate Change en_US
dc.subject Ecocrop Model en_US
dc.subject RCP Scenarios en_US
dc.subject Enset Crop en_US
dc.title Modeling the Potential Impacts of the Projected Climate Change on Enset (Ensete Ventricosum(Welw.)Cheesman) Productivity and Distribution in Selected Areas of the Snnpr, Ethiopia en_US
dc.type Thesis en_US


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