Abstract:
To delineate flood risk zones in Abakaliki Local Government Area, a hydrological model
(modified rational model) was integrated into the GIS environment by the arithmetic overlay
operation method, using operators such as addition and division. The results show that the
delineated areas however experienced same rainfall intensity of 414.2 mm/hr yet the flood
intensities of these areas differ. For instance, the very high flood risk zone covers about 22.8
percent of the study area while the low risk zone covers about 44.3 percent. And the potential
areas likely to experience periodic floods with a given input of rainfall are mostly below 40m
elevation. This study analyzed time series land use/land cover imageries (1986-2016) and 30
years rainfall data to examine land use/ land cover changes and rainfall variability as
underlying causes for flood risk hazards on downstream community. The LULC change detection
showed that out of the four identified land use classes (Forest, Agricultural lands, Bare lands,
and Settlements), only settlements changed significantly (5% to 12%). The available rainfall
record for 30-year period of 1986 to 2016 was analyzed to examine the trends of rainfall in the
study area and to provide evidence of climate change. Time series graph was constructed to
illustrate the changing trends within the months and years. Statistical analysis was performed
and the result shows low monthly precipitation changes throughout the years under study. When
the standard deviation values are examined, it is observed that the standard deviation values of
most months (March, April, May, June, July, August, September and October) are lower than the
mean values of these months indicating that the deviation from the normal distribution is not
significant. Qualitative validation of the modeling results obtained through focus group
discussions (FGDs) with local communities and experts shows that the flood modeling method
accurately classified most communities deemed to be highly susceptible to flood hazard.