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Title: Water Resource System Modeling of Eastern Nile River Basin
???metadata.dc.contributor.*???: Semu Moges (PhD)
Asegdew, Gashaw
Keywords: Water Resource;Modeling;Eastern Nile River Basin
Issue Date: Jun-2015
Publisher: AAU
Abstract: This study was conducted to quantify the likely impacts and benefits of current and future development options in the Blue Nile basin using simulation approach. Four cases studies were investigated under different scenarios; i) the filling strategy of the under-construction Great Renaissance Dam (GERD), ii) the long term GERD operation case study iii) strategic development perspective case study that includes all proposed dams upstream of GERD in Abbay-Blue Nile and iv) future irrigation development in the Eastern Nile. Mike Basin and Mike Hydro River Basin Simulation Models were used. The results indicate 6 years filling period is mostly sufficient to fill the GERD reservoir with no impact on the current irrigation water use of Egypt. However, if a rare scenario of 6 years dry consecutive sequence of flow that was observed in the 1980s occurs, the filling strategy need to be revised. Analysis of the hypothetical scenarios within -/+ 20 flow variation from the long term mean indicates the 6 years filling sequence lower than the normal (mean) flow by up to 10% will be in the tolerable range of filling. In terms of long term analysis, once GERD reservoir is filled and started operation, it imposes no threat to the existing agricultural water use on downstream countries (Sudan and Egypt). However, the annual energy production from HAD may be reduced by 6 to 8% due to the reduction in the head available at the Dam in Egypt. Overall, the presence of GERD renders more regional benefit than before. The mean energy in Eastern Nile region could increase by more than 120%. If additional proposed dams are developed as strategic option in the Abbay- Blue Nile sub basin, up to 56,000 GWh/year of energy can be produced without significant impact on regional agricultural water uses. The upstream country Ethiopia can generate as much as 38200 GWh of Energy and the energy production in Sudan increases by 38%. However, expansion of irrigated agriculture in the Eastern Nile basin generally may impact both the hydropower and existing agricultural water uses downstream of GERD. Analysis based on planned irrigation development in the basin indicates, water availability is a major constraint that limits irrigated agriculture expansion. The planned irrigation development in Sudan and Ethiopia may reduce water availability for agriculture by as much as 26.3% in the Eastern Nile basin. The possibility of more large-scale irrigation exists in the basin, but it is not close to the extent of planned development. As the study utilized the planned irrigation development by the countries, comprehensive regional planning and coordinated water management scenario, which is not covered under this study, may yield a better overview of irrigation expansion in the basin. This study is a comprehensive analysis of the impacts and benefits of hydropower and irrigation development in the Eastern Nile basin and may lay a basis for future scientific engagement in the basin. Hydropower development in the upper reaches of Abbay-Blue Nile basin is enormous and renders distinct possibility for future development beyond the completion of GERD. However, planned large scale expansion of irrigated agriculture introduces water deficit to both energy and agriculture production and requires coordinated regional planning and analysis for optimal economic and social returns to the basin. The future holds a great deal of uncertainty in terms of socio-economic and political changes that influence development decisions. To take full advantage of the water resources of the basin it is necessary the basin be managed as a single system which requires the establishment of an effective institutional mechanism that aim to develop the river in a shared-vision and cooperative way. Furthermore, future climate change may put additional uncertainties to the Eastern Nile basin development. Therefore, it is suggested that analysis of water resources development in Eastern Nile Basin shall explore opportunities using probabilistic approaches under various level of regional cooperation scenarios.
Appears in Collections:Thesis - Hydraulics Engineering

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