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Title: Land Use and Land Cover Analysis and Modeling in South Western Ethiopia: The Case of Selected Resettlement Kebeles in Gimbo Woreda
???metadata.dc.contributor.*???: Dr. Mekuria Argaw
Behailu, assefa
Keywords: Modeling and CA_Markov;LULC;Remote Sensing;GIS;Resettlement
Issue Date: 3-May-2012
Publisher: aau
Abstract: Resettlement schemes have been carried out in response to the recurrent droughts that occurred in the 1970s and 80s. However, the schemes were undertaken in coercive manner with out due consideration of the socio-economic and environmental issues related to resettlement and long-term consequences resulting in socio economic as well as environmental crisis in the study areas. Particularly with regard to the physical environment the program lack environmental impact assessment and environmental management plan which causes aggravated transformation of LULC in the study areas. The current study tried to see the impact of 1984/85 government sponsored resettlement program on the natural vegetation in terms of landuse/landcover change in destination areas,Tula-Kuti and Beyemo Kebele in Gimbo Woreda,Kafa Zone. In addition, a Cellular Automata Markov (CA_Markov) modeling approach has also been applied to predict land use change for 2020. The landuse/landcovers in Tula-Kuti for the respective years show a significant transformation, in 1973 natural forest and shrub land covered 60 % and 32 % of the total area, respectively. Cultivated land shared 6 % and settlements constituted less than 1 % of the area. But in 1987, after a decade and half, shrub land declined to 11 % while natural forest, cultivated land and settlements increased to 75 %, 12% and 1 %, respectively. In 2006, after three decades, cultivated land and settlement constituted 32 % and 2% of the area, respectively. While natural forest and shrub land declined by 63 % and 2%, respectively. In 1987, the natural forest and shrub land coverage in Beyemo Kebele was 33 % and 24 % in that order. The natural forest declined by 29 % while cultivated land and settlements increased from 29 % and 1 % in 1987 to 47 % and 7 % in 2006, in that order. Marsh land in the area decreased considerably from 13 % to 3 % in the specified period. With existing conditions, the trend for the simulated LULC map of year 2020 indicates the same pattern. Cultivated land and settlement will increase by 41 % and 13 % in the resettlement Kebele Tula-Kuti. The decrease in biomass was the highest for natural forest which is 44 % while shrub land, wood land, grazing land and marsh land constituted a total of 2% in the area.This study recommends that, resettlement should not be taken as the best alternative to minimize drought and famine or ensure food security, to guarantee effective food security in the long run, other strategies should be adopted.
Appears in Collections:Thesis - Environmental Science

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