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Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/123456789/3567

Title: EVALUATION OF CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ON OMO GIBE BASIN (CASE STUDY OF GILGEL GIBE III RESERVIOR)
Authors: BISHAW, YEMSRACH
Advisors: Dr.Ing. YONAS MICHAEL
Keywords: Climate change
GCM
HBV
SDSM
Copyright: Mar-2012
Date Added: 31-Aug-2012
Abstract: Global climate change is known to influence regional hydrology, through changes in patterns of precipitation, stream flow and other hydrologic variables. With several plausible climate change scenarios in place for future, it is important to assess the possible impact on water resources, arising out of such scenarios. Such an exercise involves projections of climatic variables (e.g., temperature, humidity, mean sea level pressure etc.) at global scales, downscaling of larger scale climatic variables to local scale hydrologic variables and computation of hydrologic risk for use in water resources planning and management. This research presents the results of a study on downscaling large scale atmospheric variables simulated with General Circulation Models (GCMs) to meteorological variables at local scale in order to investigate the hydrological impact of possible future climate change in Omo Gibe Basin (Ethiopia). Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM) was employed to convert the GCM output into daily meteorological variables appropriate for hydrological impact studies. The meteorological variables (minimum temperature, maximum temperature and precipitation) downscaled from SDSM were used as input to the HBV hydrological model which was calibrated (R2=0.798) and validated (R2=0.804) with historical data to investigate the possible impact of climate change in the catchment. The results obtained from this investigation indicate that there is significant variation in the seasonal and monthly flow. The impact of climate change may cause a decrease in monthly flow volume up to 23.55% in the 2020s and increase up to 33.43% in the 2050s. In the main rainy season (June-September) the runoff will be reduced by 21.67% in the 2080s. Seasonal flow volume may show increase up to 18.72% in bega and 12.87% in Belg However Kiremt season show decrease up to 17.59%. The result from different scenario also indicates that the catchment is sensitive to climate change.
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/123456789/3567
Appears in:Thesis - Civil Engineering

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